Xtrastine

Unfortunately, you are – the PhD applications are evaluated in Ottawa by SSHRC, while, as you’ve said, the MScs applications are now evaluated internally by individual institutions. I think accepting PhD programs and then later declining or deferring is fairly common (at least, I know of a few friends who have done this). However, I would not personally do this if it would lead a professor to believe that I want to work with them next year. It’s one thing to lead on a department – it’s not ideal, I know, but programs usually don’t expect complete attendance from everyone who accepts – but I think it’s much worse if you lead on a professor who may or may not make plans based on your acceptance. And this is not solely out of compassion – I think in that case you’re likely burning what might one day be an important bridge. The good news is that generally if a professor is interested in taking you on, then you’re likely to be accepted by the PhD program, assuming you meet the admission requirements. So I think there is a high chance you’ll get in elsewhere.

We should probably emphasize that the letters the NSERC people are getting are for the PDF award only -- nothing about CGS Ds yet! This is how it's always been, with PDF awards being allocated a couple months before CGS Ds.

I'm not sure if it's the same for SSHRC, but for NSERC you are able to see the status of your application once you log into the site (that is, the site one on which you submitted your application) - if the status of your application is "Received", then it has been submitted to NSERC by your university. Otherwise, it has not. Even though the decisions were made by your university almost a month ago now, some universities don't email applicants to let them know whether or not they've made it to the next round of the competition until January, so don't let a non-response worry you too much.