Apparently alternate status is a bit tricky. Here is how Boren staff explained it to me: "We don't have a specific system where alternates are called up in any particular order. We try to replace the recipient who drops out with someone who is studying in the same country or studying the same language. If we have a fellow who drops out and they were going to study in South Korea, then we look for Korean alternates. If someone drops out of Vietnam and we don't have an alternate who is studying there, we look for an alternate in the same region."
To me that means that alternate status is extremely unlikely to result in being awarded a fellowship, since not only is there no ranked list of alternates, but only those drop outs from your country and then your region matter when calculating your likelihood of getting a positive result.