Hey everyone,
My letter arrived in London (UK) yesterday. To my pleasant surprise, I received a CGS. As someone who's been just scraping by and sliding further into debt over the last few years, this comes as quite a psychic relief.
Some data for posterity:
I received a score of 15.3 from committee 1 (fine arts/literature) as a direct applicant. I'll be starting my PhD this fall. My MA application, a couple years ago, was unsuccessful. I've had no academic publications--just one conference presentation and a couple of literary publications (which I can't imagine made much of a difference). I know my referees were quite generous with their assessment letters, and I suspect that made a sizeable impact--but then, who can really tell.
I've heard so many stories of people submitting virtually identical application packages one year to the next and receiving vastly different scores. It is, as has been said above, largely a crapshoot. Whether that makes disappointments feel duller or sharper is another question. Best of luck to all still waiting!