Best Guess on New Gre Percentiles

[George2248]

I'm getting more and more nervous as each day passes! I really hope that I get above 85th percentile on Q.

What was your score range in quant?

[habanero]

What was your score range in quant?

730-800...I feel like I have a good chance, but I'm still nervous. My math sections were pretty difficult (in particular, the last section) and my verbal sections seemed pretty easy, so I don't really know how I'll fare.

[Kitkat]

730-800...I feel like I have a good chance, but I'm still nervous. My math sections were pretty difficult (in particular, the last section) and my verbal sections seemed pretty easy, so I don't really know how I'll fare.

While it might be completely dependent on how people are doing, I think that you do stand a good chance of being around 90%. ETS has been doing this for a while, and I think statistics on a (possibly not the best option, but possibly better then the last?) test is something that they are good at.

[George2248]

Any new info, hypothesis, even guess in the bounded to 800 ranges?

I have a 740-800 range in quant I am still not sure if it will be in the middle, top or lower range. And that really makes a difference

[Grunty DaGnome]

Another thread pointed out that the scaled score probably corresponds exactly to your raw score. I.e., a V700-800 range probably indicates you missed 9 out of 50 questions.

Until this range is weighted against other test takers to determine the missed question's relative difficulty, it's probably impossible to determine your percentile, just as it's impossible to determine your actual scaled score. It seems like a 700-800 provisional score might ultimately be a higher percentile than a 710-800 provisional score if the first test taker only missed the 9 "hardest" questions and the second test taker missed 8 of the "easiest" questions.

Even though it doesn't address the percentile question, I'll repost that contributor's comment because it argues pretty conclusively that we all just have to wait .

So here's the thing. Page 117 of the GRE Prep practice booklet from ETS lists predicted score ranges based entirely on your raw score from the practice test. There's really little else to go on except a table on the preceding page which shows what percentage of test takers correctly answered each question. With that said, the range probably matches the best and worse case scenarios based on your raw score. The low-end means every question answered had the easiest weighting, the high-end every question a hard weighting. I reckon the computer-based exam is the same thing or near similar.

Edited October 26, 2011 by Grunty DaGnome

[George2248]

With the new info, after ets translated old scores into new one...

What is your hypothesis on the scores ranges? closer to the top? closer to the lower? or middle?

[Grunty DaGnome]

No guess on how we'll fall within the bands, but I am starting to think that the highest band of math scores at least will fall within a higher percentile.

I'm basing this guess on the fact that perfect on the old tests seem to have capped out at 94%. Now that the test is supposedly a better diagnostic, maybe they will be able to assign the 95-99th percentile more accurately.

[resource]

With the new info, after ets translated old scores into new one...

What is your hypothesis on the scores ranges? closer to the top? closer to the lower? or middle?

For most ranges, I don't think the new conversion helps us. For the folks with quantitative scores in the 750-800 range, my guess is that these scores will be at, or above, the 166 mark. Pure speculation, but my hunch was that a 750-800 was really a 750-850 prior to adjusting for difficulty (or E[750-800]=800+-50) -- now that an "800" is no longer perfect, I think the right truncation will allow for scores between 167-170.

[George2248]

For most ranges, I don't think the new conversion helps us. For the folks with quantitative scores in the 750-800 range, my guess is that these scores will be at, or above, the 166 mark. Pure speculation, but my hunch was that a 750-800 was really a 750-850 prior to adjusting for difficulty (or E[750-800]=800+-50) -- now that an "800" is no longer perfect, I think the right truncation will allow for scores between 167-170.

What about 740-800? any guesses?

[resource]

What about 740-800? any guesses?

My guess for all ranges has been the lower bound + 50 give or take a few points for adjusting for difficulty. So, expect a 790+-.

Edited November 1, 2011 by resource

[George2248]

My guess for all ranges has been the lower bound + 50 give or take a few points for adjusting for difficulty. So, expect a 790+-.

Wow that is the best news I have heard in a while. I really hope your right, but I really dont think so....

I guess we will see in a week

[blaspheming]

Wow that is the best news I have heard in a while. I really hope your right, but I really dont think so....

I guess we will see in a week

Always believe a random person from the internet

[Karajan]

Based on the conversions ETS has provided so far, my guess is that the conversions will look something like this:

Verbal

490 --> 152 --> 60%

540 --> 156 --> 73%

550 --> 157 --> 75%

560 --> 157 --> 78%

570 --> 158 --> 80%

580 --> 158 --> 82%

590 --> 159 --> 84%

600 --> 160 --> 86%

610 --> 160 --> 88%

620 --> 161 --> 90%

630 --> 162 --> 91%

640 --> 162 --> 92%

650 --> 163 --> 93%

660 --> 164 --> 94%

670 --> 164 --> 94%

680 --> 165 --> 95%

690 --> 166 --> 96%

700 --> 166 --> 97%

710 --> 167 --> 97%

720 --> 168 --> 98%

770 and up --> 170 --> 99%

Math

470 --> 142 --> 22%

570 --> 147 --> 40%

580 --> 147 --> 42%

590 --> 148 --> 44%

600 --> 148 --> 46%

610 --> 149 --> 48%

620 --> 149 --> 50%

630 --> 150 --> 52%

640 --> 150 --> 55%

650 --> 151 --> 59%

670 --> 152 --> 63%

680 --> 153 --> 66%

690 --> 154 --> 69%

700 --> 155 --> 71%

710 --> 156 --> 73%

720 --> 157 --> 75%

730 --> 157 --> 77%

740 --> 158 --> 79%

750 --> 159 --> 82%

760 --> 160 --> 84%

770 --> 161 --> 87%

780 --> 163 --> 89%

790 --> 165 --> 91%

800 --> 166 --> 94%

AW

4.5 --> 72%

5.0 --> 87%

5.5 --> 94%

6.0 --> 99%

[George2248]

Always believe a random person from the internet

Sometimes you believe what you want to hear

[Daisy Fields]

ETS just released the official percentiles: http://www.ets.org/s/gre/pdf/gre_guide_table1a.pdf

Looks like the percentiles are lower than I had guessed for a given score.