... I need two people taking the Vanier, and at most 12 people with CGS studying abroad.
I wager you mean "at least", here. And this is in our subcommittee alone. What happens in other subcommittees doesn't help us. 2 were offered Vaniers, and 34 others combined for the SSHRC/CGS awards in that subcommittee. From what I've heard from SSHRC, someone declining a Vanier may be detrimental to us, as from what I gather, the award is not necessarily 'passed on' in that subcommittee -and what's more, they get a Small SSHRC from somewhere if they decline the Vanier. That said, I hope you're right about all this, because your getting an award is a sufficient condition for my getting one. Further, it's possible that if all this happens, I may win a CGS, and I haven't even won a small SSHRC yet. Where were you on the waitlist (just out of curiousity)?
Your calculations do lead to a more optimistic view, but a number with this view have been burned by admissions/scholarship committees not giving full information, as tends to be common. For those who applied for the 2009-2010 academic year to the UChicago Econ Ph.D program, they might remember this all too well.
We applied being told by their website, and by admins that there were the usual 25 funded spots, and because they're Chicago, 85 spots in total (they like to give a number of students a chance, and take their money while they're at it.) After applying, and waiting, we hear from an admin that 'the economy' had forced them to cut the number of funded spots to 15. So, at the end of the day, there were 25% more applicants, and 40% less spots. Would have been nice if they had told us that at the beginning, so that some of us wouldn't have wasted the $120 to apply (UChicago is a gold mine for admin fees).
Again, not trying to say you won't get one, but you've given this more thought than I think might be good for your ability to cope with rejection, should that be the ultimate, and unfortunate outcome. It's not uncommon for budgets to change mid-year for all sorts of reasons, and who knows what happened this year. That said, a member of my program this year didn't initially win an award, but received a 'business CGS' in July. Anything is possible, it's true.