No clue. Looking at the results page, and judging by the ratio of UW Madison rejections to wait list notifications posted, there are well over 100 people on the Madison wait list. But if I had to guess, I'd say there are more like 30.
But okay, here's one reason Madison might have such a long wait list: A *lot* of people end up turning down Madison. But that would mean, of course that in fact Madison does actually accept more than just a few people off their wait list.
And I'm sure everyone has seen this by now, but since it's so relevant, I'll post it anyway: http://leiterreports.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/right-wing-critics-of-higher-ed-in-wisconsin-apparently-dont-understand-how-markets-work.html
Unfortunately, yes, I'd expect it will drop them. Russ is arguably the biggest name there. Certainly one of the biggest names at their department. But it's especially relevant for people doing ethics & meta-ethics.
To anyone who does ethics and/or meta-ethics and with an offer from or wait listed at UW Madison, this is probably of (major) interest: http://leiterreports.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/shafer-landau-from-wisconsin-to-north-carolina.html
To anyone who does ethics and/or meta-ethics and with an offer from or wait listed at UW Madison, this is probably of (major) interest: http://leiterreports.typepad.com/blog/2015/03/shafer-landau-from-wisconsin-to-north-carolina.html