i'm not sure about the chances. last year on the fulbright google sheet, about every other country had one person who got bumped up. then again, not every finalist fills out the google sheet. and they seem to always send an email with the subject "fulbright application status" and ask to "discuss the status of your application" in the email. then you call and they offer the award. if fulbright is contacting you as an alternate, you can assume that you are getting bumped up. they have no reason to contact you otherwise. ¡buena suerte!