skyrunningstatistician

Hi guys, I'm a second year undergraduate studying finance in Queensland, Australia and am interested in undertaking a Masters or PhD at Oxford or Stanford in statistics. My overall GPA is 3.53/4.0 and have very strong ECs. What are my chances at this rate? Successful applicants, what's your advice for personal statements, references? On a side note, a friend of mine is interested in applying at Oxford/Cambridge. He flunked his first year with 1C, 3F, 4P but has managed to maintain a HD average to third year, along with strong references of his improvements and outstanding marks. What are his chances? Any advices for this person? Any insights and advices will be greatly appreciated - any criticisms will be reflected upon. Thanks.