The advisors at my school told me different, i don't think your are totally correct on the ranking part. But close. The way it works is:
1. School ranks your app at the time of campus interview. ranking 1-5 based on strength of your app, not against others.
2. Sent off to NY, not ranked in any order at all, just sent as recommended. i.e., 4 grants available, will send 6-8 w/o ranking
3. Host country ranks. This is how it works. So, for instance, if NY sent 8 apps, they will rank 1,2,3,4. 1-4 gets the grant. I'm not sure how many alternates are named, but some obviously get rejected.
I don't blame them for not saying. They won't say probably because they don't want to get any hopes up. What if they say you are the first alternate, but no funding comes and every principal candidate accepts? that would stink, and i imagine this might be a reason they don't say. i imagine they don't have a large amount of alternates, but most likely a healthy amount with just enough cushion based on previous year grant decliners. just assume you're not going to get it, and if you do that's a nice bonus. don't sit here and wait. my campus rep also said there is roughly a 30% chance to get it. but go ahead and start searching for other things.