At the MA level its about 95-99% chance of winning because the universities are given a quota, so when they send on their A-list applicants, it's to FILL that quota - no more no less. The only way you don't win at the MA level is if SSHRC changes the quota due to budget cuts - then people at the end of the A-list get bumped down to the alternate list.
Yes, it is possible to get a SSHRC and not into grad school. If you've been placed on the A-list you should tell the schools you've applied to for grad school, because they too know that it's a 95-99% chance of winning.
GradSchoolLove got a reaction from FCP in SSHRC award but no grad school???