Sigaba

Even though I was told by a professor that I might have gotten a job had I been born a decade earlier--"maybe"--I would never advise someone not to pursue a personal or professional goal. (The day I passed quals, the committee member who represented my outside field said Think of yourself as a teacher. By which he meant that it was my responsibility to give people information that enabled them to achieve their goals--my opinion of those goals notwithstanding.)
I would (and have) recommended doing a herculean amount of due diligence--including reading the OP again and again. There may be "nothing new" to some readers who are aware of some of the patterns that have been developing since the early 1990s. To many others, the post adds crucial nuance.
 I also recommend setting up job alerts in Linkedin and elsewhere so one understands how graduate degrees may or may not translate into requirements for job qualifications and professional experience. Some consultancies and government agencies require the kind of research experience that cannot quite be satisfied by a master's degree.
FWIW/Neither here nor there, I do take slight exception to the lumping together of the academic job market for professional academic historians as the most important key performance indicator of the profession's vitality or sustainability. 

Do what you can to pivot towards the sensibilities of an academic historian as soon as possible. Your UG GPA, your success rate in previous cycles, and the rankings of where you applied are not very useful to you.
What kind of history do you want to do? How might your research impact existing historiographical debates of your specific field, your area/time period, and the overall profession? How do you see your career as an academic unfolding over the next thirty years? <==Talking about these kinds of questions is likely going to draw more initial interest than your backstory from academics.

As long as it was made clear that Han shot first, this sounds like a promising topic.

Please consider the benefits of going here

http://library.uvm.edu/collections/theses?search_type=dept&dept=33
and there
https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/hist_etds/
and finding theses supervised by potential PIs and then finding out where graduate students went next.
As an alterative, you could contact each program's DGS and ask questions centered around outcomes.

Please consider the benefits of going here

http://library.uvm.edu/collections/theses?search_type=dept&dept=33
and there
https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/hist_etds/
and finding theses supervised by potential PIs and then finding out where graduate students went next.
As an alterative, you could contact each program's DGS and ask questions centered around outcomes.

I echo everything that's been said above and also urge anyone in this position to read Anne Helen Petersen's series on masters programs in the humanities. Also, for Columbia specifically, I believe those programs run about $50k per year for just tuition. At least, those were the numbers in 2016. 
https://annehelen.substack.com/p/the-masters-trap?s=r

To @jpbends's point, the "received wisdom" of this forum is that one should not pursue an unfunded terminal master's degree in history unless one has deep pockets. AFIAK, this guidance is more word of mouth/rule of thumb than the outcome of qualitative or quantitative research.
The rigors being in a master's program while having to worry about funding and your applications for a doctoral program could limit what you get out of that program in terms of your development as an academic historian? Will professors care enough to bounce you off the walls so that you grow or will they just nod and smile with dollar signs in their eyes when you speak?

Also, if you earn a master's at a program and then go on to a doctoral program, you'll most likely end up having to jump through many of the same hoops all over again--up to the point where you could earn a second master's in history.

What are the alternatives? Maybe consider enrolling in a program in which you can earn a degree or even a certificate in what will be your outside field as a doctoral student. Maybe this path could center on developing a skill that will help you get part time work during the summers or full time work if you ultimately decide that things are as bad in the House of Klio as many say. Or, if you're not an Americanist, you could enroll in a language program that will allow you to knock out a requirement or two in a doctoral program.

Hey, @kaw

You might be better served were you to pose your question in this forum.

https://forum.thegradcafe.com/forum/48-mathematics-and-statistics/

Another possibility, just looking at your acceptances so far, is that they didn't actually think you would accept the offer and wanted to be able to extend it to someone else--congrats on Michigan and UCSD, amazing programs! 

We are in somewhat similar fields so feel free to DM -- I'm finishing up and just started a permanent job, tt-equivalent but I'm not in the US, but anyway I have some *thoughts* about the programs you're considering, based on the experiences of friends. Suspect you'll get into UH as well. Anyway--feel free!

Before you accept or decline, please consider the resources at your disposal for performing a vigorous due diligence for each of your potential options. Please way the benefits and challenges (not pros and cons) of each option.
FWIW, The way I see it, you have at least five centered around attending graduate school
defer accept with intent to push through to the doctorate with your intended fields accept with the intent to reassess after earning a masters with your intended fields accept with the intent to earn a master's degree while (covertly) developing skills for a job outside of history. You could use the outside field requirement to develop a skill in data science or project management. Just make sure that the skill isn't something with a very limited shelf life.  accept with the intent to earn a doctorate with fields that will help you get a job outside of the Ivory Tower. As an example, if your top 10 school's name starts with a Y or a H or a P or a J, and your interests are anywhere adjacent to security studies/grand strategy you could put together a path of study that leads to a job with .GOV or .MIL For options in the private sector, I recommend that viable alternatives should comparable favorably to what you'd be giving up by not going to graduate school. That is, you have an offer of "guaranteed" underemployment with health insurance and great amenities (like the library) during an interval of
intensifying great power rivalry, economic uncertainty, a pandemic that doesn't care if people think it should be classified as an endemic, political turbulence. Please also take a look at your theory that you're overthinking things. To what extent is "over thinking" a trait that that has kept you out of bad situations or a potential character flaw that has led you to walking away from opportunities for personal fulfilment and success. The latter can really become a grind if left unchecked. Or so I've heard.
Please do consider talking to your professors candidly about your ambivalence. Before initiating such a conversation, make sure that you're going to be able to speak frankly about your hopes, your fears, and your understanding of their expectations. (On this last point, I think that @AP will prove to be right. I think that your professors like you personally.)

Before you accept or decline, please consider the resources at your disposal for performing a vigorous due diligence for each of your potential options. Please way the benefits and challenges (not pros and cons) of each option.
FWIW, The way I see it, you have at least five centered around attending graduate school
defer accept with intent to push through to the doctorate with your intended fields accept with the intent to reassess after earning a masters with your intended fields accept with the intent to earn a master's degree while (covertly) developing skills for a job outside of history. You could use the outside field requirement to develop a skill in data science or project management. Just make sure that the skill isn't something with a very limited shelf life.  accept with the intent to earn a doctorate with fields that will help you get a job outside of the Ivory Tower. As an example, if your top 10 school's name starts with a Y or a H or a P or a J, and your interests are anywhere adjacent to security studies/grand strategy you could put together a path of study that leads to a job with .GOV or .MIL For options in the private sector, I recommend that viable alternatives should comparable favorably to what you'd be giving up by not going to graduate school. That is, you have an offer of "guaranteed" underemployment with health insurance and great amenities (like the library) during an interval of
intensifying great power rivalry, economic uncertainty, a pandemic that doesn't care if people think it should be classified as an endemic, political turbulence. Please also take a look at your theory that you're overthinking things. To what extent is "over thinking" a trait that that has kept you out of bad situations or a potential character flaw that has led you to walking away from opportunities for personal fulfilment and success. The latter can really become a grind if left unchecked. Or so I've heard.
Please do consider talking to your professors candidly about your ambivalence. Before initiating such a conversation, make sure that you're going to be able to speak frankly about your hopes, your fears, and your understanding of their expectations. (On this last point, I think that @AP will prove to be right. I think that your professors like you personally.)

No no no no no. You should never, EVER go into anything to please others, least of all your professors. You can talk to your program where you were admitted and ask for a deferral or simply decline. IT IS OK TO DECLINE AN OFFER. Trust me. A good professor will always be proud of you, no matter what you choose, so long it's your choice. And if anyone gets offended, well, it's their problem. 

Before you accept or decline, please consider the resources at your disposal for performing a vigorous due diligence for each of your potential options. Please way the benefits and challenges (not pros and cons) of each option.
FWIW, The way I see it, you have at least five centered around attending graduate school
defer accept with intent to push through to the doctorate with your intended fields accept with the intent to reassess after earning a masters with your intended fields accept with the intent to earn a master's degree while (covertly) developing skills for a job outside of history. You could use the outside field requirement to develop a skill in data science or project management. Just make sure that the skill isn't something with a very limited shelf life.  accept with the intent to earn a doctorate with fields that will help you get a job outside of the Ivory Tower. As an example, if your top 10 school's name starts with a Y or a H or a P or a J, and your interests are anywhere adjacent to security studies/grand strategy you could put together a path of study that leads to a job with .GOV or .MIL For options in the private sector, I recommend that viable alternatives should comparable favorably to what you'd be giving up by not going to graduate school. That is, you have an offer of "guaranteed" underemployment with health insurance and great amenities (like the library) during an interval of
intensifying great power rivalry, economic uncertainty, a pandemic that doesn't care if people think it should be classified as an endemic, political turbulence. Please also take a look at your theory that you're overthinking things. To what extent is "over thinking" a trait that that has kept you out of bad situations or a potential character flaw that has led you to walking away from opportunities for personal fulfilment and success. The latter can really become a grind if left unchecked. Or so I've heard.
Please do consider talking to your professors candidly about your ambivalence. Before initiating such a conversation, make sure that you're going to be able to speak frankly about your hopes, your fears, and your understanding of their expectations. (On this last point, I think that @AP will prove to be right. I think that your professors like you personally.)

Before you accept or decline, please consider the resources at your disposal for performing a vigorous due diligence for each of your potential options. Please way the benefits and challenges (not pros and cons) of each option.
FWIW, The way I see it, you have at least five centered around attending graduate school
defer accept with intent to push through to the doctorate with your intended fields accept with the intent to reassess after earning a masters with your intended fields accept with the intent to earn a master's degree while (covertly) developing skills for a job outside of history. You could use the outside field requirement to develop a skill in data science or project management. Just make sure that the skill isn't something with a very limited shelf life.  accept with the intent to earn a doctorate with fields that will help you get a job outside of the Ivory Tower. As an example, if your top 10 school's name starts with a Y or a H or a P or a J, and your interests are anywhere adjacent to security studies/grand strategy you could put together a path of study that leads to a job with .GOV or .MIL For options in the private sector, I recommend that viable alternatives should comparable favorably to what you'd be giving up by not going to graduate school. That is, you have an offer of "guaranteed" underemployment with health insurance and great amenities (like the library) during an interval of
intensifying great power rivalry, economic uncertainty, a pandemic that doesn't care if people think it should be classified as an endemic, political turbulence. Please also take a look at your theory that you're overthinking things. To what extent is "over thinking" a trait that that has kept you out of bad situations or a potential character flaw that has led you to walking away from opportunities for personal fulfilment and success. The latter can really become a grind if left unchecked. Or so I've heard.
Please do consider talking to your professors candidly about your ambivalence. Before initiating such a conversation, make sure that you're going to be able to speak frankly about your hopes, your fears, and your understanding of their expectations. (On this last point, I think that @AP will prove to be right. I think that your professors like you personally.)

As long as it was made clear that Han shot first, this sounds like a promising topic.

Crises of American Exceptionalism would be an excellent course to teach.

Unless you're using an alt account, it seems that you've been here a short while. I think that if you were to take a deep dive into @AP's post, you'd quickly find that this individual is the exact opposite of the person you're describing.
To me, the issue you are having has something to do with you. I think that you're sending a clear message that if you don't get what you want when you want it and how you want it, you're going to go into attack mode. 
FWIW, here's something I learned. History professors (like @AP) give very subtle guidance. Why? I don't know. Maybe they don't want to blowback that can follow if the recipient doesn't like the message. I do know that sometime students mistake coaching for criticism. I also know that it sometimes takes a while (or in my case, years) to figure out the wisdom, care, and respect that goes into such guidance.

There's a certain irony to people saying "We're all adults here" and then attempting to dictate what others should not discuss in this thread so they can get their own emotional needs fulfilled.
Change of topic. The "opportunity costs" of graduate school are not just about the money you don't make from having a full time salaried gig with health benefits and PTO. It's about the compound interest you don't earn on retirement accounts and other investments. It's about having fewer opportunities for owning a home. It's about still being in school while your friends and classmates are going onwards and upwards in their careers and personal lives. It's about understanding the declining marketability of your skillset in a society that undervalues a historian's skillset and sensibilities. (If I knew then what I know now, would I have taken that left turn to North Gate and into a computer science class rather than strolling on to Dwinelle for a class on Jacksonian America? I have no idea.) 
Congratulations to those who have received offers of admission. Believe it or not, in a year or two you'll be longing for the relatively certainty and stress free days of your application season.

To those of you who are hitting "refresh" thirty times a second and/or are frantically reading the tea leaves of others' "I got in" posts to figure out your chances, hang in there. Please consider other (less self destructive) ways of passing the time. You could contribute to the "Lessons learned" thread. You could do your best on focusing on your current academic projects. You could assume that you're going to be in a graduate program this fall or next and start preparing for your next set of challenges.
To those who have had an unsuccessful application season, consider the benefits of getting some rest before deciding your next step.

Unless you're using an alt account, it seems that you've been here a short while. I think that if you were to take a deep dive into @AP's post, you'd quickly find that this individual is the exact opposite of the person you're describing.
To me, the issue you are having has something to do with you. I think that you're sending a clear message that if you don't get what you want when you want it and how you want it, you're going to go into attack mode. 
FWIW, here's something I learned. History professors (like @AP) give very subtle guidance. Why? I don't know. Maybe they don't want to blowback that can follow if the recipient doesn't like the message. I do know that sometime students mistake coaching for criticism. I also know that it sometimes takes a while (or in my case, years) to figure out the wisdom, care, and respect that goes into such guidance.

There's a certain irony to people saying "We're all adults here" and then attempting to dictate what others should not discuss in this thread so they can get their own emotional needs fulfilled.
Change of topic. The "opportunity costs" of graduate school are not just about the money you don't make from having a full time salaried gig with health benefits and PTO. It's about the compound interest you don't earn on retirement accounts and other investments. It's about having fewer opportunities for owning a home. It's about still being in school while your friends and classmates are going onwards and upwards in their careers and personal lives. It's about understanding the declining marketability of your skillset in a society that undervalues a historian's skillset and sensibilities. (If I knew then what I know now, would I have taken that left turn to North Gate and into a computer science class rather than strolling on to Dwinelle for a class on Jacksonian America? I have no idea.) 
Congratulations to those who have received offers of admission. Believe it or not, in a year or two you'll be longing for the relatively certainty and stress free days of your application season.

To those of you who are hitting "refresh" thirty times a second and/or are frantically reading the tea leaves of others' "I got in" posts to figure out your chances, hang in there. Please consider other (less self destructive) ways of passing the time. You could contribute to the "Lessons learned" thread. You could do your best on focusing on your current academic projects. You could assume that you're going to be in a graduate program this fall or next and start preparing for your next set of challenges.
To those who have had an unsuccessful application season, consider the benefits of getting some rest before deciding your next step.

There's a certain irony to people saying "We're all adults here" and then attempting to dictate what others should not discuss in this thread so they can get their own emotional needs fulfilled.
Change of topic. The "opportunity costs" of graduate school are not just about the money you don't make from having a full time salaried gig with health benefits and PTO. It's about the compound interest you don't earn on retirement accounts and other investments. It's about having fewer opportunities for owning a home. It's about still being in school while your friends and classmates are going onwards and upwards in their careers and personal lives. It's about understanding the declining marketability of your skillset in a society that undervalues a historian's skillset and sensibilities. (If I knew then what I know now, would I have taken that left turn to North Gate and into a computer science class rather than strolling on to Dwinelle for a class on Jacksonian America? I have no idea.) 
Congratulations to those who have received offers of admission. Believe it or not, in a year or two you'll be longing for the relatively certainty and stress free days of your application season.

To those of you who are hitting "refresh" thirty times a second and/or are frantically reading the tea leaves of others' "I got in" posts to figure out your chances, hang in there. Please consider other (less self destructive) ways of passing the time. You could contribute to the "Lessons learned" thread. You could do your best on focusing on your current academic projects. You could assume that you're going to be in a graduate program this fall or next and start preparing for your next set of challenges.
To those who have had an unsuccessful application season, consider the benefits of getting some rest before deciding your next step.

There's a certain irony to people saying "We're all adults here" and then attempting to dictate what others should not discuss in this thread so they can get their own emotional needs fulfilled.
Change of topic. The "opportunity costs" of graduate school are not just about the money you don't make from having a full time salaried gig with health benefits and PTO. It's about the compound interest you don't earn on retirement accounts and other investments. It's about having fewer opportunities for owning a home. It's about still being in school while your friends and classmates are going onwards and upwards in their careers and personal lives. It's about understanding the declining marketability of your skillset in a society that undervalues a historian's skillset and sensibilities. (If I knew then what I know now, would I have taken that left turn to North Gate and into a computer science class rather than strolling on to Dwinelle for a class on Jacksonian America? I have no idea.) 
Congratulations to those who have received offers of admission. Believe it or not, in a year or two you'll be longing for the relatively certainty and stress free days of your application season.

To those of you who are hitting "refresh" thirty times a second and/or are frantically reading the tea leaves of others' "I got in" posts to figure out your chances, hang in there. Please consider other (less self destructive) ways of passing the time. You could contribute to the "Lessons learned" thread. You could do your best on focusing on your current academic projects. You could assume that you're going to be in a graduate program this fall or next and start preparing for your next set of challenges.
To those who have had an unsuccessful application season, consider the benefits of getting some rest before deciding your next step.

I decided to apply to graduate school.

I'm very late in the game (grading) but after the worst year on the TT, I can go back to this anonymous forum.
This conversation has been very fruitful. 
I'll add some thoughts, but I agree with much of what has been say. 
First, yes, as @pssteinthe job market is really abysmal that top program graduates find themselves in positions that might have looked unthinkable twenty years ago. An alum from my program working at a small branch of a regional university once told us that his department avoided hiring people from top programs because those are the ones that don't want to teach 4/4 and usually end up leaving. By this I mean, top programs might have the pedigree, the extra funded time, more dedicated faculty, but at the end of the day, the struggles are very similar. 
Larger programs, usually in public universities, depend heavily on graduate student labor so it's not just COVID affecting admission but department needs. And, as someone else mentioned, funding from higher ups. In short, there is no formula, which brings me to my next point.
As you think of where to apply, think not on the statistical probability of getting in but on building a profile and rapport that it makes sense for the program to admit you and train you. When potential grad students contact me, I see potential when they tell me right there in one well-packaged sentence why my program is a good fit for them. People that say "I like your article on..." means nothing to me. But people saying "I have questions about X Y and Z" usually spark an "ohhh!" on my part.  
I notice there are no programs in the south (Vanderbilt?) or the west, and I wonder why. I am not an Americanist, but I have colleagues in California, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Florida whose programs might be up your alley. 
Finally, no one can predict the job market. We are scientists and we work with evidence and the evidence suggests this is not going to get better soon. However, we cannot predict much. So, when researching programs, you can certainly ask DGS/grad students if/how the program changed in the last ten years (red flag if they haven't revised it!), what opportunities for professionalization exist outside the classroom, how do programs see themselves in five years, etc. 
Good luck
Edit: Just a quick thing, remember that no matter when you start a PhD program, it's more often than not a transformative experience. You are not the same person when you start than when you leave because you learn a lot about yourself. Friends of mine realized that they didn't want to be college professors, others realized they actually don't like academia and are passionate about other things, someone in my program decided they wanted to work in activist organizations when they graduated. All this is to say that yes, there is a pressure from the academic job market but, as you journey on, you will (hopefully) have a say in what you want to do with your degree. While the market might push us in one direction, we also have agency on that. (I hope this makes sense, I'm foggy from second vaccine shot, so there).