turktheman

Evangelical schools certainly can place students in TT US PhD programs, esp. places like Fuller, Wheaton, and sometimes TEDS. And your choice of Duke (div or gdr?) and PTS makes good sense. I don't know if you've considered other programs, but I'd consider it if you have the extra cash for apps. 
You have some strengths for sure. Seminars can be a boon to an application, esp in LOR. Hopefully you can have a professor who taught a seminar or two write on your behalf. I would not over emphasize teaching Greek in your SOP. Mention it if you have some reason to think the program you are applying to would value that, and if you do, mention your student evaluations if you did well (and presumably have them). 
I personally would not dwell long on your previous non-biblical studies work. Talk about your interests and your preparation for doctoral work: critical theories you work in, topics that you've taken up in course work, areas you want to focus on, language prep, etc. Apologizing for previous academic experience will not be the best way to spend your precious word cap. 
For GRE, Duke does weigh scores heavily, perhaps more than most others. I'm not sure about PTS. In the end, if the program wants you, they will take you--poor GRE included. I know a few people over the years who earned only slightly in the mid-80s percentile on verbal and abysmally on the analytical section yet got into TT programs because that student fit objective and subject criteria the program was looking for. The process can be a crapshoot.

Baylor's early deadline is tough. I am sorry if you had mentioned wanting to have suggestions for programs. I skim too lightly. I would apply to Vanderbilt (who apparently is taking NT students again), Notre Dame (I think their application is in January), Marquette, UT Austin, and maybe to University of Virginia and Emory. These schools are vastly different in faculty strengths and student profiles. Depending on what you would like to do, some of these would be a waste. UT Austin is not a place to do constructive theology in the guise of biblical studies. The same is mostly true for UVa and maybe Vanderbilt (have checked in on thier program in years). Notre Dame is a wild card: all things to all people. Marquette would be a great place for that, but not great for critical race theory or historical criticism or the like. We all talk about fit, and this is mostly what is meant: will your academic interests align with faculty strengths and other student profiles. Now, sometimes people get into every program despite these differences and despite their (mis)aligned interests--that's why doctoral admissions is ultimately subjective with a good mixture of department politics. The other factor is the pool of applicants. It seems pretty dead in gradcafe. Usually people are anxiously chatting in early October about profiles, programs, and strategies. Perhaps there are less applicants out there, which if true might help everyone who is applying.

A year of Latin might be enough for Marquette's program, but CUA and ND are heavy on languages. For liturgical studies, you'll be stacked up against candidates who went to Catholic school and did Latin for most of their primary and secondary schooling. They knew they wanted to do something in Religious Studies, so they took Latin in college and grad school. In the least, they have several years of Latin on their transcript. It isn't unheard of for liturgical studies applicants to have a year or two of Greek or Syriac as well. 
 
Ultimately, the process is far more subjective than anyone ever let's on. It happens all the time that an applicant with minimal language training gets into top programs. It also happens that students with just a BA get into top doctoral programs. After all, the US program is built with 2 years of coursework before exams in part to beef up your languages before the dissertation phase. As for the GRE, yours is probably good enough for any program to admit you if they want you. The TA position isn't likely going to help or hurt your application. In short, I'd apply if you have the money and are fully aware of the incredibly slim chances of getting in.

So your follow up helps a lot. Do what NTAC recommends: take as many languages as you can in the Spring. Stokes, who did his PhD under John Collins, can do an independent study in Aramaic and Ge'ez if need be. He is well connected and his recommendation letter would probably carry the greatest weight. So would Steve Ortiz's recommendation. He's very well respected with Iron Age folks, including Deirdre Fulton at Baylor. Klein isn't nearly as well known as people tend to thing he is. 
 
Perkins School of Theology at SMU is certainly a great place. I'm not too sure who is there though in HB. Brite would probably be your best bet. Baylor *might* just add slightly to your dilemma since not everyone, even among seasoned academics, are aware that Truett Seminary is wholly other than Southern Baptist. There's no confusion about SMU and Brite though. (I say this as someone fully aware of the difference between Baylor and SBC seminaries). For me it would come down to funding.

You've got some excellent advice here. It would be unlikely that someone from an SBC seminary would land in a top tier PhD program. PTS has in the past taken students from SEBTS, so that might be an option. You do have options though, and each one depends on your determination.
If you decide to finish out the ThM at SWBTS, you can apply for doctoral work outside of the US. This is where the majority of confessional students will land from conservative seminaries. Funding is almost non-existent unless you have GI Bill, willing to take out massive loans, or get your local church to back you. I wouldn't do it, personally. You can, however, find programs in South Africa and New Zealand that are funded and accept US Students. Oslo in New Zealand is one for sure. I'd check out Stellenbosch, Pretoria, and North-West University in South Africa. Canada might also be an option, but I am not as aware of their funding situation. 
You can also aim at more open-minded evangelical places like Fuller, TEDS, Wheaton, Westminister Theological Seminary, RTS, etc. SBC doesn't have an overly negative connotation at those places. Funded in these schools is not tremendous, but you could maybe hope for tuition to be covered. You might also consider some Catholic schools that may not be as concerned about the SBC sinkhole. Marquette could be one. 
If you decide to jump ship, you are still not guaranteed to land in a funded doctoral program. It is a gamble--probably financially and emotionally. I do know that Brite Divinity School (associated with TCU) has great funding for their ThM program. Vanderbilt just launched it's ThM program (https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2018/09/18/vanderbilt-divinity-to-offer-master-of-theology-degree/). It also promises guaranteed funding for it (who knows how much though). Do not do a ThM and pay much for it. (This game isn't worth it. Become a librarian or something else if you like university culture).   
You can also apply for MA degrees at various places. Again, Vanderbilt has good funding for their MDiv and the 1 year MA in Jewish Studies program. Yale Divinity School also makes attractive offers for their MA and MDiv programs. Notre Dame can offer full tuition plus a small stipend. So there are certainly options for you to take advantage of that might not cost you anything. 
In the end, it comes down to doubling down or doing something else. This is true for everyone of course, but if you are in a sinkhole, it might not be as easy for you to get out as someone who isn't in one. You can do a ThM or MA somewhere else, perhaps with little out of pocket cost. Apply for doctoral work, get in. Or you could bust and have wasted likely 2 years chasing a funded program. 
Not knowing your situation's full details, I would nonetheless say apply to PTS, Marquette, a funded foreign PhD program (or two), and a couple of those evangelical places (if you are still broadly in that category--SBC is hard right, so anything to the left would be better) for doctoral work. I'd also submit applications to Brite and Vanderbilt Divinity School for the ThM since they have funding. In addition, I would apply to YDS's MA in Bible or Second Temple Judaism, ND's MTS program, and Vanderbilt University's MA in Jewish Studies (wide program, but they do let people specialize in HB/Rabbinic Judaism). See what happens with acceptances and funding and go from there. 

You've got some excellent advice here. It would be unlikely that someone from an SBC seminary would land in a top tier PhD program. PTS has in the past taken students from SEBTS, so that might be an option. You do have options though, and each one depends on your determination.
If you decide to finish out the ThM at SWBTS, you can apply for doctoral work outside of the US. This is where the majority of confessional students will land from conservative seminaries. Funding is almost non-existent unless you have GI Bill, willing to take out massive loans, or get your local church to back you. I wouldn't do it, personally. You can, however, find programs in South Africa and New Zealand that are funded and accept US Students. Oslo in New Zealand is one for sure. I'd check out Stellenbosch, Pretoria, and North-West University in South Africa. Canada might also be an option, but I am not as aware of their funding situation. 
You can also aim at more open-minded evangelical places like Fuller, TEDS, Wheaton, Westminister Theological Seminary, RTS, etc. SBC doesn't have an overly negative connotation at those places. Funded in these schools is not tremendous, but you could maybe hope for tuition to be covered. You might also consider some Catholic schools that may not be as concerned about the SBC sinkhole. Marquette could be one. 
If you decide to jump ship, you are still not guaranteed to land in a funded doctoral program. It is a gamble--probably financially and emotionally. I do know that Brite Divinity School (associated with TCU) has great funding for their ThM program. Vanderbilt just launched it's ThM program (https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2018/09/18/vanderbilt-divinity-to-offer-master-of-theology-degree/). It also promises guaranteed funding for it (who knows how much though). Do not do a ThM and pay much for it. (This game isn't worth it. Become a librarian or something else if you like university culture).   
You can also apply for MA degrees at various places. Again, Vanderbilt has good funding for their MDiv and the 1 year MA in Jewish Studies program. Yale Divinity School also makes attractive offers for their MA and MDiv programs. Notre Dame can offer full tuition plus a small stipend. So there are certainly options for you to take advantage of that might not cost you anything. 
In the end, it comes down to doubling down or doing something else. This is true for everyone of course, but if you are in a sinkhole, it might not be as easy for you to get out as someone who isn't in one. You can do a ThM or MA somewhere else, perhaps with little out of pocket cost. Apply for doctoral work, get in. Or you could bust and have wasted likely 2 years chasing a funded program. 
Not knowing your situation's full details, I would nonetheless say apply to PTS, Marquette, a funded foreign PhD program (or two), and a couple of those evangelical places (if you are still broadly in that category--SBC is hard right, so anything to the left would be better) for doctoral work. I'd also submit applications to Brite and Vanderbilt Divinity School for the ThM since they have funding. In addition, I would apply to YDS's MA in Bible or Second Temple Judaism, ND's MTS program, and Vanderbilt University's MA in Jewish Studies (wide program, but they do let people specialize in HB/Rabbinic Judaism). See what happens with acceptances and funding and go from there. 

I'll chime in here. I was accepted to Oxford's DPhil in Theology last year, and obtained (and then lost) an outside source of funding. In addition to losing my funding, I was keen on completing a PhD in the US. This was more than just optics (i.e. how I'd be perceived by potential employers). Instead, I felt the UK style PhD would not give me the tools I need to become a true scholar in my field. I felt the added coursework, comprehensives, language requirements, and teaching--all part of US programs--would help me become a true scholar.
I don't know how good Baylor and Marquette are. But, I think they are probably second-tier schools. I don't know how they will fare against the Oxford brand name, and my guess is that it would be a toss up. However, Oxford is not a viable option anyways, due to the crushing cost. 
Therefore, I wanted to suggest a third option, which is what I did. I applied again the next year, and used the extra year to boost my CV. I was then accepted to a top-tier US program, and could give Oxford a middle finger, which I felt they deserved for even offering PhD's without funding. I think that's a racket, designed to exploit a student and their brand name. I cannot understand paying $30k/yr just to do a dissertation, especially when apparently supervisors there can be very hands-off and meet only a couple times per semester. Screw that.
Anyways, I think you should cross Oxford off the list, and then decide between Baylor, Marquette, and reapplying the next year. Three good options.

I would check out Brite Divinity School. I can't comment directly on UU there, but in many regards they are very open and progressive. I think this article illustrates the diversity of students and their chaplaincy program.  If I remember right, they got a lot of flack over Jason Heap, but they stuck to their convictions. Valerie Forstman use to be the head of admissions (maybe she still is); she is an exceptionally pleasant person and very helpful in talking to potential students about the Brite community and the potential fit. I'd look her up if you are interested. It also doesn't hurt that Brite tends to have very good funding and cheap cost of living compared to NE programs. 
I also found this article from UU's website that lists some programs to check out. 

I have a friend who applied to Duke Divinity for doctoral work (not to their GDR) last year. He mentioned that they extended the deadline a day or two after the deadline to give another week or so to all the applications still in process. Could be something like that. As for applications, I think there's been a downward trend for a while based on conversations I've  had (no hard data, just stuff in passing). Causations tricky, but one thing I hear often is that the rebound from the recession over the last few years has weeded out people who have options to do other things (I wouldn't discount the tax issue either). I don't know if that type of weeding out makes it any less competitive though.

I'm off the waitlist at UVA! Ecstatic!

Nice! I've secured funding for Oxford, so I'll be going to the UK with you!

The only way you'll know is if you ask, otherwise you're left with a "What if..."
If a school crosses me off their list because I play the card, "I have an acceptance elsewhere but I really want to be here" - well, fuck them.

Thanks for the insight! 
As for Emory, I can't say about all rejections. For me, I was initially put on the waitlist/or named as an alternate, but then received a rejection last week. Not sure if all departments have done this or not. 

Just wanted to chime in on FSU, since I'm in the department (though not studying American Religious History).

I don't think many of us who are enrolled here believe it's better than an Ivy or that it's a top tier program.  But we did know that there are truly outstanding faculty here, including Corrigan of course, but also Amanda Porterfield in ARH and Sumner Twiss, John Kelsay and Aline Kalbian who are in the ethics track (my track).  Also, Adam Gaiser who teaches Islam is an absolute gem of a professor.
We are funded, and there is a faculty which truly supports us in our mission to become scholars.  But there is another aspect of our program that I think may not be as well known, and it's that we get a Tremendous amount of teaching experience.  I'm finishing coursework this semester and will have 4 semesters of instructor of record already on my resume.  

Anyhow, wanted to thank Marxian for standing up for the state schools that are often sort of looked down on.  I think the real bottom line is that the job market is just a nightmare, for all of us.  We can only prepare so much, work so hard, and then the rest of it is up to the odds and the hiring committees.

The short answer is yes, but with some qualification. I think Marcion is by and large right above that Ivy schools do have top RS programs whose graduates get jobs. But I do think two things need to be disentangled; namely, top tier school in RS and Ivy League school, especially because the impression on this thread seems to be Ivies=Best, Everything Else=Second Tier. Are the RS departments at Ivy League schools top tier? Yes, for the most part. But if we're looking strictly at departmental reputation, placement record, etc., then a lot of other schools, including non-elite universities, have top tier RS departments. For example, I would never consider FSU's RS program second tier, especially if you study American Religious History. And therein lies the rub--the strength of your program's ability to help you on the job market really does depend a lot on your subfield and who your advisor is. The bottom line, to answer your question, is you need to look at the departmental fit and not the school's overall reputation which really only matters for undergrads. Is FSU a highly ranked undergraduate institution when we're considering it on a general scale of all undergraduate institutions? No. But its RS PhD program is very good for particular subfields.
Departments are always strong in particular areas and not so strong in others. Some departments provide amazing faculty support and at others, some students find it very very difficult to get any face time with their advisor at all. Some students will find the latter a major problem and others no problem at all. Some departments provide great interview coaching and job market training. Some, Harvard for example, provide no such coaching or training (or such opportunities must be sought rigorously on a student's own initiative) and it really shows. I'm sure many of us on this board already in programs have witnessed some pretty atrocious job talks given by Ivy products. As someone has already said, Ivy names will often get an applicant a closer look and probably help toward landing an AAR interview. But the interview weekend cannot be saved by a school name. At that point it's all you and only you.
I think there are three factors you need to consider: funding, fit, faculty. One of the reasons people on the board emphasize schools with funding over those without or very little (beside avoiding debt) is because people with funding simply have more time to do better work than people who have to work an outside job to support their studies. They have more time for grant applications, to write and publish an article, etc.--things that aren't requirements for obtaining a PhD but go a long way toward job marketability and success. Two students of equal ability will likely have different success if one is in a fully funded program and the other is not. Schools that offer funding also just tend to be better resourced overall in terms of fellowship offices, internal grant competitions, etc. But again--that doesn't have anything to do with whether a school is an Ivy. There are fully funded state school programs--Indiana, UVA, UC Santa Barbara, UT-Austin, UNC, and FSU for example--whose graduates get jobs with, I would guess, a frequency competitive with that of the Ivies. Many of the private programs, e.g. Duke and UChicago, are already considered on par with the Ivies, but others, Syracuse, Stanford, Northwestern, etc. are also either historically strong or have become strong recently.
As to fit, if you're not comfortable in your program--i.e. where comfortable means studying with people, both students and faculty, and in an environment that is conducive to your growth as a scholar--you're not going to succeed. PhD programs are too emotionally draining. If an Ivy turns out not to be an environment in which you will thrive, it is not worth your emotional, mental, and physical health. People who choose Ivies over a better fit elsewhere struggle mightily (unless they're academic robots). Being in a place where you feel you belong and can be part of an active scholarly community is really vital to being successful.
With regard to faculty, there are some really great, well-respected, well known scholars who teach at non-Ivy league schools. Bob Orsi and Sylvester Johnson are at Northwestern. John Corrigan at FSU. Ann Taves at UCSB. These are people whose name literally every RS scholar working in a department would know. If you have a person like this as your advisor, no one is going to give two shits that you didn't go to an Ivy. That doesn't mean that you must have someone who is known that widely across RS as your advisor. But if your advisor is well known in your subfield and writes you stellar letters, that will get some traction on the job market.
To your specific dilemma: It's really not possible to say where UC Davis's RS program ranks at this point because it's too new--no one has graduated from it. I did meet a grad student from it, however, who presented in my department's grad student conference back in October. He seemed to be really enjoying it and felt like it was a good fit for him. The UC system is by no means the bastion of well-funded public PhD programs. That being said, it's still regarded as the flagship of public university systems, and Davis is near the top of the middle/bottom of the top of those schools overall. But if you run through those three criteria above, funding, fit, faculty, I think you'll have a better sense of whether or not it's the right choice.

A friend from my first masters applied a couple of weeks ago, but he hasn't heard. He's expecting to hear back in March. I would apply ASAP and send an e-mail to admissions to inquire about the turn around. To add undue information, their summer language agreement with Princeton University for German/French/Latin is a great way to get a leg up in the application pool, and it is cheap. Parsenios's work on the Gospel of John in light of Greek literature (esp. drama) is great. I've heard a lot of great things from people who have done their dissertation under him. 
 
I would also add that if you do decide on a ThM, be sure to contact the professors as soon as you are admitted and decide to attend. You can make contact through the summer to help speed along the getting to know you process for recommendation letters. PTS also publishes its course list in advance, so their website (maybe under the catalog) would already tell you what classes you can expect.

Funny. I read the email at 5. Email was sent last night. Is that sufficiently precise?

Heartbreaking. Not that it's any consolation, but if you get interviewed and nominated by Yale, then the professors must have thought you were a good fit and were ready for doctoral work at Yale. Bureaucracy and funding got in your way. I hope you get off the waitlist (If waitlisted) or get into another great program, of which there are many.

Heartbreaking. Not that it's any consolation, but if you get interviewed and nominated by Yale, then the professors must have thought you were a good fit and were ready for doctoral work at Yale. Bureaucracy and funding got in your way. I hope you get off the waitlist (If waitlisted) or get into another great program, of which there are many.

YAAAY! Finally! Interview with Iowa next week!!! YAAAAAY!!!!

The department's recommendations were sent to GSAS last Wednesday (or was it Tuesday . . . can't be sure now). I can confirm that at least one person has been notified of his/her acceptance today by a call. I assume this means acceptances are ready to go out, but there's no rule that subfields have to sync their notification efforts.  

MarXian is right that most schools have a rubber stamp stage where the will of the department is heeded at the GSAS level. There are also exceptions to this where a GSAS committee has agency in the decision, like Yale. If your contact you've emailed told you it is currently up in the air while in the hands of admissions (or what have you), then that's cause not to assume acceptance at this point.

MarXian is right that most schools have a rubber stamp stage where the will of the department is heeded at the GSAS level. There are also exceptions to this where a GSAS committee has agency in the decision, like Yale. If your contact you've emailed told you it is currently up in the air while in the hands of admissions (or what have you), then that's cause not to assume acceptance at this point.

Through their GSAS. I don't know about the School of Theology, but the GSAS religious studies tracks appear to notify very late in February/early March (based on most of the results). 

I'm not 100% sure how it works, which is why I was ambiguous above.  My understanding is that the department of religious studies works through applications according to subfield. Some subfields do interviews (not sure who all does/doesn't). Full professors are given nominating privileges. Not every professor will exercise his/her privilege. Those nominations from all subfields are sent to GSAS. GSAS determines how many spots religious studies will get and ranks the nominations sent to them (the ranking system is the grand mystery). Let's say they offer 10 spots to religious studies, but 15 people are nominated: the top 10 will get offers. The other 5 will be waitlisted. Let's say you are Ancient Christianity and get waitlisted while another candidate gets accepted into AC. If he/she turns it down, you don't necessarily get the vacant spot. It goes to number 11 on the ranking who might be NT, Judaic Studies, or some other field that tends to have more nominations than Ancient Christianity or the like. So to answer your question, people get nominated without getting offers every year. It all depends on how many are nominated and how many spots overall are allocated to the religious studies from GSAS.