Quickmick

"The tribe has spoken."?

Well, @inooradd who knows, maybe third time a charm. It sounds like you took steps to be a more compelling applicant, good luck!

South Bend--and ND--has (like everywhere) pros and cons. Sorry about the news, but I am confident you will get a positive result.
 

Doh!
 

ummm not sure I agree with this one, how did you calculate 4%? You applied to a few programs, I imagine, and you only need to get into one--so I would think you would use Bayes Theorem. Part of this would involve not using the published admission stats, but what you honestly believe your chances are per program. In any case, I would think the odds are significantly higher than 4%.
if odds are at say 15%/per and you apply to 10 for one success you are *I think* looking at:
pbinom(1, size=10, prob=0.15) [1] 0.5442998 1-54= 46% @7.5% admission rate it goes to about 16% (below) but--in reality--long reach schools will be closer to nil odds and will get better from there so it isn't so clean...but I do think 4% is too low of a guess.

pbinom(1, size=10, prob=0.075) [1] 0.8304059

Doh!
 

Too late, hopes are up.

Too late, hopes are up.

Too late, hopes are up.

Too late, hopes are up.

There is a lot to think about. While any way you slice it the numbers are uber competitive, there are some twists. Of the top 10 schools a fair number of the applicants are applying to the same programs. So say for 10 schools at 200 apps each 100 are overlap, and 100 are discrete/per. That makes 1100, and say 1/3 are long reach apps of the 1000. so 750 qualified apps for say 75-100 spots (across subfileds). So maybe 10%? Just pointing out that it might not be as dire as the admission stats suggest prima facie. Though if your field is crowded (or was oversubscribed last year) you might just be out of luck.
There is obviously more going on, but I just wanted to bring up the overlap thing...
good luck everyone!
hmmm... maybe the overlap is smaller? I dont know...just waiting around for news.   : o  P
                                                                                                                                   

There is a lot to think about. While any way you slice it the numbers are uber competitive, there are some twists. Of the top 10 schools a fair number of the applicants are applying to the same programs. So say for 10 schools at 200 apps each 100 are overlap, and 100 are discrete/per. That makes 1100, and say 1/3 are long reach apps of the 1000. so 750 qualified apps for say 75-100 spots (across subfileds). So maybe 10%? Just pointing out that it might not be as dire as the admission stats suggest prima facie. Though if your field is crowded (or was oversubscribed last year) you might just be out of luck.
There is obviously more going on, but I just wanted to bring up the overlap thing...
good luck everyone!
hmmm... maybe the overlap is smaller? I dont know...just waiting around for news.   : o  P
                                                                                                                                   

There is a lot to think about. While any way you slice it the numbers are uber competitive, there are some twists. Of the top 10 schools a fair number of the applicants are applying to the same programs. So say for 10 schools at 200 apps each 100 are overlap, and 100 are discrete/per. That makes 1100, and say 1/3 are long reach apps of the 1000. so 750 qualified apps for say 75-100 spots (across subfileds). So maybe 10%? Just pointing out that it might not be as dire as the admission stats suggest prima facie. Though if your field is crowded (or was oversubscribed last year) you might just be out of luck.
There is obviously more going on, but I just wanted to bring up the overlap thing...
good luck everyone!
hmmm... maybe the overlap is smaller? I dont know...just waiting around for news.   : o  P
                                                                                                                                   

sounds like it is pretty well buttoned up (excepting the fee question). After you get it set up it should be pretty smooth....direct deposit and there will probably an admin of sorts who will take care of the tuition bill. Once you meet this gatekeeper you will probably just hand over your tuition bill and presto magic. Oh, depending on your uni, your pay/tuition waiver may not preclude you from applying to and receiving institutional awards which might help supplement your wages.
Congratulations, you should be proud of yourself! That is a good spot to be in, and my understanding of my similar situation is that it is not terribly common for MS students.

Just be grateful and graceful and it will be fine. Frankly, they will probably appreciate your candor as it will prevent them from wasting time/money, and might even help a fellow candidate by freeing up a spot. I wouldn't worry about hurting any feelings, its just business and we are all big boys and girls.

Just be grateful and graceful and it will be fine. Frankly, they will probably appreciate your candor as it will prevent them from wasting time/money, and might even help a fellow candidate by freeing up a spot. I wouldn't worry about hurting any feelings, its just business and we are all big boys and girls.

@Neist on the heels of Origin of Species you might consider Kolbert's The 6th Extinction.

I tend to try and look at this process as involving business decisions, not personal decisions. If you sent out your best packet that is all you can do. If I don't get in anywhere it would sting, but if 8 adcoms are telling me I don't belong...well maybe I don't.

FYI, if the secure PDF things pops up on you again, you can strip it easily and for free (I had to do this for transcript purposes, too). Just google strip PDF security or look:
http://www.wikihow.com/Unlock-a-Secure-PDF-File
Hope it helps someone and good luck everyone!

you can search the 'results' button above, or I have had luck punching something like "results Georgetown political science (or whatever) gradcafe" into google which seems to link me to an appropriate page, then crtl F to find your key word. I managed to find (I think) a pretty good window for notices for my apps, I hope you have good luck too!

FYI, if the secure PDF things pops up on you again, you can strip it easily and for free (I had to do this for transcript purposes, too). Just google strip PDF security or look:
http://www.wikihow.com/Unlock-a-Secure-PDF-File
Hope it helps someone and good luck everyone!

you can search the 'results' button above, or I have had luck punching something like "results Georgetown political science (or whatever) gradcafe" into google which seems to link me to an appropriate page, then crtl F to find your key word. I managed to find (I think) a pretty good window for notices for my apps, I hope you have good luck too!

For me it was important to remember that the student/uni relationship is a two way street and the POI contacting process informed me as much (or more) than it did them. One school I wouldn't have applied to got added to the list, and several got removed from the list, as a result of these efforts. In terms of time, I didn't track it, but the process was to 1)scour the uni websites/faculty bios to get an idea of fit 2)do a little more looking into the 'possibles' and contact about 1/2 of those 3)depending on the feedback I looked through their history of pubs and 4)for those I met in person/skyped with/phoned/or detailed conversations with I read a paper or two and in one case skimmed their (to date) flagship book--so not really too much time.

I don't know what you are using (SAS, R, etc.) but R is free and can do what you are asking. http://datascienceplus.com/perform-logistic-regression-in-r/
I tried to look at your link, but it didn't work.

I did cross post this in History...
December 1st fast approaching,
     and all through the nation
Hopeful applicants
     face much consternation.
 
POIs have been mailed,
     LORs have been written,
With dreams of great funding
     these minds have been smitten.
 
T's crossed and i's dotted,
     spell check is complete
For a chance at a PhD,
    unemployed on the street.
 
Happy holidays and good luck everyone!