Schopenhauerfanboy

I don't have any anecdotes, but here's something I found consoling. 

Suppose you're around the middle of the pack and have a slightly better than average chance of getting in (say, 15%). And you applied to 15 schools.
Then:
1 - (8.5/10)^15 
So, you have a 91% chance of getting into at least one program. 

Pretty good odds, I'd say!

For a lot of programs, the odds are considerably worse only if you assume that your odds are as good as every other applicant's.  From what I've read, it's usually around 5% acceptance rate. But if you assume that you're above the 50th percentile of applicants, then your odds are considerably better. Suppose there's 200 applications and 10 offers. That's 5% chance. But if you assume you're around the 50th percentile (which presumably you are higher than if you have a good record), then you'd be better than 100 of the applicants. So your odds are obviously better say, 10%. Then across 15 applications, you'd get:
1 - (0.9/10)^15 
So, just shy of 80% of getting into at least one. These numbers are, of course, somewhat arbitrary, but you can do a reasonable estimation if you have good grounds for thinking you are at least around 50th percentile. It's not like the 200 applicants all have 3.9+ GPAs, 90th percentile + verbal GRE scores, or whatever other propitious attributes your application possesses.  


It's the same thing with law school, I would imagine. There are often 1500 applications for say 100 spots, but a considerable number of those aren't plausible to begin with. And if you already know beforehand that your GPA and LSAT are in the range of the preceding class profile, it would be foolish to think you have the same odds of getting in as every other applicant. Of course my story would unravel if it turned out that ALL or almost all of the applicants to PhD programs were of equivalent quality. 

But from what I've read, most of the people in this forum have records that are a lot better than the average person applying to graduate school. 

Just saw this now - I accepted the offer from Syracuse! 

Got admitted to Syracuse last week, and also to McGill on Monday - almost June! 

Just saw this now - I accepted the offer from Syracuse! 

Just saw this now - I accepted the offer from Syracuse! 

Just saw this now - I accepted the offer from Syracuse! 

Just saw this now - I accepted the offer from Syracuse! 

Got admitted to Syracuse last week, and also to McGill on Monday - almost June! 

Got admitted to Syracuse last week, and also to McGill on Monday - almost June! 

Got admitted to Syracuse last week, and also to McGill on Monday - almost June! 

I'm "downgrading" my CGS for a SSHRC Doctoral Fellowship. Got admitted into Syracuse for the Fall. 
Hope this helps someone on the waitlist for a CGS, if that's how it works.

In Hamilton. Just won a CGS! 17/20. Totally shocked, but stoked! 

In Hamilton. Just won a CGS! 17/20. Totally shocked, but stoked! 

In Hamilton. Just won a CGS! 17/20. Totally shocked, but stoked! 

Email from SSHRC that the results will be mailed out April 28th. 

Email from SSHRC that the results will be mailed out April 28th. 

Someone asked on Twitter and SSHRC replied saying this week. The letter will probably go out likely today or tomorrow!

Ended up accepting a last-minute offer from Purdue. Very sad to have turned down Tulane. 

Ended up accepting a last-minute offer from Purdue. Very sad to have turned down Tulane. 

Ended up accepting a last-minute offer from Purdue. Very sad to have turned down Tulane. 

Anybody declining Syracuse? Asking for a friend... 

I have accepted an offer from Colorado Boulder. Is anyone else on here either going to attend or considering attending CU? 

Philosophers are probably the most socially awkward sub-group, so I'd say you're in good company .

Philosophers are probably the most socially awkward sub-group, so I'd say you're in good company .