MasterPublicPolicy

True -- "safety" in the context of PhD admissions doesn't really exist.
My advice: don't think of PhD admissions in the way you think of Masters or undergraduate admissions. Think of it as being more similar to applying to a job -- your "stats" certainly matter (GRE, GPA, transcript, etc.), but it's only a small piece of the puzzle. Just like with a job application, you definitely need to meet the minimum qualifications (and, for most PhD programs, it appears you already do). But once the minimums are met, the PhD process gets much more vague -- it moves into the realm of "fit." You'll meet with professors, and potentially even have an interview. They're trying to figure out if your interests align with theirs.
Don't underestimate the importance of networking for this process. PhD programs like to play themselves off as highly meritocratic, but again, I think the process is much more similar to applying to a job. If your advisor from grad schools knows a potential PhD advisor at another school (maybe they studied in grad school together themselves!), then your advisor can definitely give his/her friend a call, and it will help your application. Talk to some of your professors who will recommend you. See who they know and what they suggest you do.

True -- "safety" in the context of PhD admissions doesn't really exist.
My advice: don't think of PhD admissions in the way you think of Masters or undergraduate admissions. Think of it as being more similar to applying to a job -- your "stats" certainly matter (GRE, GPA, transcript, etc.), but it's only a small piece of the puzzle. Just like with a job application, you definitely need to meet the minimum qualifications (and, for most PhD programs, it appears you already do). But once the minimums are met, the PhD process gets much more vague -- it moves into the realm of "fit." You'll meet with professors, and potentially even have an interview. They're trying to figure out if your interests align with theirs.
Don't underestimate the importance of networking for this process. PhD programs like to play themselves off as highly meritocratic, but again, I think the process is much more similar to applying to a job. If your advisor from grad schools knows a potential PhD advisor at another school (maybe they studied in grad school together themselves!), then your advisor can definitely give his/her friend a call, and it will help your application. Talk to some of your professors who will recommend you. See who they know and what they suggest you do.

Totally agreed here. I would also say that since GradCafes, like you said, are among the most prepared to begin with, they probably have friends and so on who have applied to much more competitive programs -- law, business, med school. I think that makes them misjudge how competitive MPP and MPA programs really are. They think they're comparable to MBAs and JDs, when really that's not entirely true, at least not from an admissions standpoint.
So, yes, breathe!