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Just curious, did anyone attempt to calculate the likelihood of getting into at least one school out of the total list? If so how?

 

I'd calculate the binomial probability of getting into one school given you are applying to n: 1Cn p(1-p)n-1

 

"C" is the combination operator, and p is the probability of success (I am assuming it is the same for every school).

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In at UPenn. I'm at a loss for words. I'm hoping everyone else who has been shut out so far receives some good news soon (hopefully a few more today who also get into Penn).

That was me.   I've applied for 4 rounds.   Finally.

During my search to see if anyone has actually written an article on this, I ran across an article by a Political Scientist on admissions (no, not the Gary King one) and according to this article there are graduate students on the admissions committee. I realize that they play a very small role in admissions, but why even have them on the committee? 

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During my search to see if anyone has actually written an article on this, I ran across an article by a Political Scientist on admissions (no, not the Gary King one) and according to this article there are graduate students on the admissions committee. I realize that they play a very small role in admissions, but why even have them on the committee? 

 

I believe there's even a few of those types of grads on the forums here.

 

My guess would be because they can offer an honest evaluation of the program from a student's perspective and help to determine whether the candidates would also fit in the department inclusive of the students (attrition is probably less of a problem when the students have an agreeable cohort/department at large). 

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Hahah great responses guys.  Though we still have a way to go till we reach to the updating part of luckyducky's calculations - at least 5 or 6 weeks. 

 

and zudei - i think the real challenge stems from the fact that the probability of success is not constant across schools like a coin toss, so you can't save the day by assuming it away :)

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Just to add, it's also an issue of "shared governance" at universities. Just like in governments, there's a legitimacy issue in universities. If professors don't feel like they're part of administrative decisions, and if students don't feel that they're represented, then a lot of people's satisfaction shoots downward. This is a huge issue at my alma mater right now.

 

I believe there's even a few of those types of grads on the forums here.

 

My guess would be because they can offer an honest evaluation of the program from a student's perspective and help to determine whether the candidates would also fit in the department inclusive of the students (attrition is probably less of a problem when the students have an agreeable cohort/department at large). 

 

 

During my search to see if anyone has actually written an article on this, I ran across an article by a Political Scientist on admissions (no, not the Gary King one) and according to this article there are graduate students on the admissions committee. I realize that they play a very small role in admissions, but why even have them on the committee? 

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During my search to see if anyone has actually written an article on this, I ran across an article by a Political Scientist on admissions (no, not the Gary King one) and according to this article there are graduate students on the admissions committee. I realize that they play a very small role in admissions, but why even have them on the committee? 

Because faculty are looking to reduce the amount of work they have to do. I take it you object?

Admissions: I don't think you have the information necessary at this point to construct a reasonable estimate of your probability of admissions at any particular school. If you could, and we could agree that this probability is conditionally independent between schools (conditional on the quality of your application) and equal at each school, then you could compute things straightforwardly as 1 - (1-p)^n, where n is the number of schools you apply to, and p is the probability of admisisons at any one school. You can obviously do some updating once you start getting offers.

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well the gradcafe answer to that is the following formula (disclaimer: I don't actually agree with most of it): 

 

 

and zudei - i think the real challenge stems from the fact that the probability of success is not constant across schools like a coin toss, so you can't save the day by assuming it away :)

 

Couldn't this just be solved using the Poisson binomial probability function? (assuming the success/failure outcomes of your applications are independent, which I would think would be the case). My stats work is rusty but I think I remember this being the way we approached probability of success among non-identical events. 

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Couldn't this just be solved using the Poisson binomial probability function? (assuming the success/failure outcomes of your applications are independent, which I would think would be the case). My stats work is rusty but I think I remember this being the way we approached probability of success among non-identical events. 

 

Indeed, we then just need the average prob of success

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Leave Market Man. Seriously. If your description is accurate, which I do not doubt, do not do this to yourself. You are a first year student right? Either leave while it is not too late, or hold your breath and apply again to transfer. If the latter is not an option for you, leaving now would save you from years of pain and agony (during and after gradschool). 

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Just curious, did anyone attempt to calculate the likelihood of getting into at least one school out of the total list? If so how?

 

Ha. I like all the (semi?) serious responses. I didn't read them all, but I did a couple of mental exercises when I was deciding on schools. First, I just calculated my expected return on these applications (using the average admission rate). Since for most schools that's about 20%, I decided to apply to at least 5 schools (no chance I will not get into one, right?!?!?). 

 

I spent two years working at a think tank (a pretty good one, too). Those places are the best guesstimators in the world, it is pretty much what they do. So, I would just make some subjective modifications to the calculations above. For my mental exercises, I looked at average GPAs and GREs scores AND their standard deviation (when provided), and I came up with what I thought was my individual chances at each school. Re-calculate your expected return with those probabilities, and I feel that will give you a decent sense.

 

Side note - I wish more schools provided standard deviation, that tells soooo much more about how they value GPA and GREs. 

Edited by mv0027
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I didn't want to respond to this, but I couldn't help myself. 

Complaining about funding, a schools inability (from the applicants perspective) to inform all rejected applicants at the same time, terrible application systems, poorly written rejection letters, methodology preferences at each department, etc. is acceptable on gradcafe. Personal attacks on gradcafe on a Professor is unacceptable and unprofessional.

Anyways, I agree with the recommendations provided by TheGnome. Just be careful about what you post. You are obviously frustrated,  I can't imagine your situation getting better. Good luck. 

 

This is true. guess the stress gets to people

Edited by ThisGuyRiteHere
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This is true. I hid the comment and will hide the others. guess its just the stress

 

Did your name just change? Haha... That all said, your information is somewhat useful. Those are all important things to consider. Just because a university accepted you, doesn't mean you'll actually fit well in the department. 

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Did your name just change? Haha... That all said, your information is somewhat useful. Those are all important things to consider. Just because a university accepted you, doesn't mean you'll actually fit well in the department. 

 

True

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During my search to see if anyone has actually written an article on this, I ran across an article by a Political Scientist on admissions (no, not the Gary King one) and according to this article there are graduate students on the admissions committee. I realize that they play a very small role in admissions, but why even have them on the committee? 

 

 

My guess would be because they can offer an honest evaluation of the program from a student's perspective and help to determine whether the candidates would also fit in the department inclusive of the students (attrition is probably less of a problem when the students have an agreeable cohort/department at large). 

 

Correct. I've never been or seen a grad student on a grad admissions committee, fwiw.

 

Do not object. I was just wondering if there was more to it than just reducing workload. I do hope they get paid for it. 

 

They do not.

 

Nor do we, except with time off.

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I've got another innocuous question.

 

If you get in, is it true that you get a phone call? I screen calls and usually don't pick up numbers I do not know. I guess I will come February. I guess people still obsessively check website in case they update first? 

 

Honestly, I would prefer an e-mail. 

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I've got another innocuous question.

 

If you get in, is it true that you get a phone call? I screen calls and usually don't pick up numbers I do not know. I guess I will come February. I guess people still obsessively check website in case they update first? 

 

Honestly, I would prefer an e-mail. 

It varies by school. If you look at the results page, you can assess which schools are most likely to call you. I think it is a generational thing (at least I hope it is. I may just be strange). I am more likely to respond to texts and e-mails than phone calls. 

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