Duke statistics PhD interview

I'm going to Duke in a couple weeks for what was described to me as a "small group applicant visit." A couple questions for anyone who's been through this in the past: What are the odds of getting an offer given that they're paying for me to visit? Is this actually just another interview round, or do I have a pretty good shot at this point? I saw one person from April 2009 got flown down, waitlisted and then rejected. Any ideas as to how many people get paid visits? Secondly, what do you we

I wouldn't wear a pit-stained baggy math t-shirt and white athletic socks, but I definitely wouldn't wear a tie. Button down shirt or nice sweater and non-denim pants for men, somewhere around business casual. IIRC last year they said they would admit about half of the people they interviewed between flyouts and Skype calls to internationals. So I'd say you have a good chance, of course, but far from a sure thing. Last year they had candidates meet just about every professor in the depar