I agree with all the points you made, but have experience in this one. I wanted to add that I grew up in Chicago and now live in Brooklyn, and for what its worth, I think what you said about both places is right on. Everyone does know each other in Chicago, making it more difficult to get a foot in the door. And even if you know those people, there is only so much pie. In New York, the opportunities are all over, and there seems to be a constant baking of fresh pie. Ok, that was a stupid metaphor, but you get the point. It can be a more demanding place to live, but I've found it to be worth the effort.
I am applying to MFA programs in NY after living there for 5 years, and I feel like my work ethic, the quality of my work and the contacts that I have made give me a resolve that I wouldn't have otherwise. And my hope is that an MFA will allow me to contribute to a greater breadth of artistic practices and cultural production - in all its forms. I like to think of it as if I am applying to do masters research in theoretical physics. It is something that is incredibly hard to explain and not very practically applicable, but the brainpower contributed to the world is necessary to further human knowledge.
And, you only live once.