I'm pretty sure this is the case. Of the three schools I've heard from already, two were cases where I'd already had contact with the research group that accepted me.
mitIndian: Can you do a meta-thesis on the probability that you'll get to write a thesis there? Maybe they'll take another look at you for theory group
That's the part that is driving me crazy. I was all happy waiting it out, and then dates started getting posted and suddenly my expectation curve turns into a sawtooth wave. Have to say I was much happier not having any idea what was going on then having to keep revising it!