I'm in a similar boat; definitely feeling unprepared when I compare myself to other posters. I wish I'd taken my undergraduate more seriously in the earlier years, but it took time for me to figure out my goals. I also have so many things I'd do differently in the application process. Waaay to much time for hindsight these last couple months; been picking myself apart like a vulture.
If there's one thing this forum has taught me, however, is that there are few generalizations to be made in the application process; between the individual candidates, degrees, and departments, there are so many variables that make one's fate difficult to predict or compare to that of others. At this point, therefore, I serve my assumption of the worst with a small side of hope. Worst comes to worst, I'll apply again next year a bit wiser, and try to spend the meantime as productively and sane-ly as possible.