whaynes2,
According to the forums from last year, each Boren applicant has a 15% chance of receiving the award. The applications are divided into world region committees who select 15% of their applications to go to the national committee. If you receive the budget email, your chances of definitely receiving it go up to 66%. That number doesn't include alternates who also have a good shot. I think alternates get notified in late May if someone ahead of them declines the award.