From Academic Jobs Wiki on 2015-2016 Dissertation Fellowship, posted today. What you said makes sense. I just got panicked when there were posts on the final results. Too anxious to wait for the result. I also got transcript request in early Feb and heard nothing since then.
Update from another forum: "Spoke with someone on the phone. Some notifications have already gone out, final decisions made mid-April, final notifications by early May." The notifications would go out so early this year? Anyone hear back from ssrc?