[Advice from an actual PhD (redux)]

To answer your questions:

Yes, I am trying to help people. I don't want people to be discouraged, but the reality in this business is that sometimes reality is discouraging.

No, I don't regret any of my choices career-wise, but I know plenty of people who do. I have been profoundly fortunate in my career.

No, no one took me aside to give me this talk. In fact, I got the exact opposite feedback when I told my undergraduate adviser that I was going to get a PhD. "Oh, you're going to get a PhD at XXX? That's a great department, you should have no trouble getting a job." No one should enter this process with misinformation like that. I also see what happens in my very own department as some of my colleagues promise the moon and the stars to prospective PhD students. I don't do this myself, but I'm in the minority here.

I feel that I owe it to you prospective students to give you an honest picture of how things work in our profession.

The Realist/Decaf is giving you all the GOD'S HONEST TRUTH. I am recently graduated from a top-10 program. EVERYTHING he is telling you is right on the money, and the only thing I can add is that with the economy, it's actually worse out there now and I think will continue to be for a while.

We have brilliant top candidates who four years ago would have gotten a job somewhere after one or two years on the market. That is just not the case anymore. And it's not "thousands of candidates chasing hundreds of jobs," it's more like "thousands of candidates chasing TENS of jobs."

There's always something to be said for following your dream. What you need to ask yourself is this: is that dream worth chasing knowing that, even if you go to a "top" school, chances are better than 50% that you will not land ANY kind of academic job at the end? Not "a job at a good school" or "a job where I'd like to live," but ANY JOB?

Again, we are telling this to you so that if you go, you go with a clear understanding of the very substantial risk that you are taking.