I can't really speak to #2 (it could go both ways as you said), here are my thoughts for #1. It kinda looks like they are giving you the "passive rejection". They haven't been clear or upfront with you about your status, even if you are on the waitlist. If they truly wanted you, they would be much more forthcoming. Frankly, it does almost seem like they want you to "go away" however sad that may sound.
My advice is to email them and (politely) tell them the truth. You can't wait until 4/15. You have another offer at another school (#1) and funding could be tied to your accept date there. You still are interested in #2, but you cannot continue forward to April 15 without some further clarification.
If they want you, they will let you know what the deal is. If they say "smell you later", well, you didn't want to go there anyway.
Just my two cents. Hope this helps!
