I'm in the same boat as an alternate! So as far as I know, there are usually at least a few alternates bumped up in most cohorts. It's impossible to guess the likelihood of getting promoted though - it's based on maintaining diversity in the cohort, so for example if someone drops they'd try to replace them with someone from the same state, major, or other similar background. Hopefully the first round of alternate bumps will happen soon - best of luck!