Rejected with 2 reviews (IM/BI): G/VG and VG/G. I guess I am not surprised but the rating sheets were pretty much worthless. Both parroted exactly what I had written (i.e. "Applicant proposes to do X, Y and Z" with one comment at the end - yes, I know what I proposed.) At least I know they read my proposal, and none were hostile, but Dr. G/VG gave only a dismissive throwaway line not addressing the research at all. Both acknowledged that my grasp of literature, research design, experience presenting research to academic and non-academic audiences, and record of outreach and education were "feasible", "potentially quite valuable", "a demonstrated record of success" etc. Publishing in the first two years is not standard in my field, but my conference presentations were commented upon. Due to the lack of helpful comments, I still have no idea what I did wrong, but reading the other winners/honorable mentions in my discipline, I think I just work on the wrong topic (I know others have mentioned this, too.)
This was a nice kick in the nuts to wake up to, but I feel slightly better reading these:
http://www.nsfgrfp.org/about_the_program/publications_about_the_program
Specifically:
Chapman, Gretchen B., and McCauley, Clark. “Early Career Achievements of National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Applicants: Looking for Pygmalion and Galatea effects on NSF winners.” Journal of Applied Psychology 78(5) (1994): 815-20.
"Our results indicate that receiving an NSF award has a reliable effect on probability of completing the PhD (70% vs. 63%) but only unreliable effects on post-PhD professional accomplishments." (Maybe us non-winners have to work harder to prove ourselves.)
"It is surprising that only about 70% of the able students who are awarded an NSF fellowship actually go on to complete the PhD."
"Given the prestige value of an NSF fellowship, however, a relatively strong expectancy effect might have been expected. Consequently, the weak award effect in our results calls for some explanation."
also see:
Chapman, Gretchen B. “Predictive Validity of Quality Ratings of National Science Foundation Graduate Fellows.” Educational and Psychological Measurement 54(2) (1994): 428-38.