Thanks Bayesian, this is very helpful. Let me add that I had a rough freshman year (health issues), so my ex-freshman GPA rounds to 3.6. No idea how I'll address that on the application (!). I'm also taking an grad course in the fall with one of my potential recommenders, which might help a bit.
To give you an idea of risk tolerance, I'm targeting Pr(getting into >= k schools) = 1-0.15*k for k ∈ {1,..,5}. Given what you said, here are some more UConn/less Yale schools:
UCSB
University of PIttsburgh
Boston U
Rutgers
UC Irvine
Colorado State
So my list might be...
Reach/Group 1: UT, Yale, Michigan, UCLA
Group 2: UConn, Boston U, Rutgers, Rice
Group 3: Colorado State, UC Irvine, UCSB
Reasonable? Also, if I were to put in for biostat (at schools that have it), would that help?