Hi everyone. I can't sleep and I stumbled on this page and have spent some time reading through many, many discussions here. It recalled my times of going through applications. I finished my Ph.D. 3 years ago. Maybe sharing some of my experience can be helpful.
I did my BA in philosophy at a good school that was not nationally recognized, but has a good reputation and is generally known as a school where grade inflation has not been happening. I had a 3.3, which was very high there, good references from professors who hadn't published anything, and had myself actually published a book chapter (in a university press-published book) as an undergraduate.
I applied to MDiv's at Princeton Theological, Harvard, Union, Berkeley, Drew, and Chicago.
I was accepted to Drew with full funding, Union and Chicago with partial funding.
While in my MDiv I did very well, also at an institution that is not known for grade inflation, and had around a 3.7.
I applied to the Ph.D. in the same program as the MDiv where I was enrolled. I met with all the professors in the program, was active with the social and academic life of the theological school, and developed a good relationship with the advisor whom I had identified my intentions with. I applied nowhere else, based on my confidence of my acceptance, and much to my disappointment I was rejected. Some of my classmates who, I believed, had lesser GPAs or were less qualified were accepted. I was very angry.
But I found work very quickly in a church and agreed to a one year deal for employment, and also began teaching. I talked to some trusted professors. My former advisor, who had agreed to be my doctoral advisor, told me to apply again and that the competition was espcially tough that year. Another professor offered to buy me lunch and she was very honest--the problem was that there are good schools and better schools in religion and theology. The strength of an individual Ph.D. is in the subfields, connections with professors, and institutional ability to thrive. She felt that my particular interests would be better served eslewhere, and suggested a school I had not considered before, and specifically thought of one professor who I had really neglected to consider working with. And she said that this particular school's job placement was far better than where I was and some other elite schools. But she did encourage me to try again there.
So, the second time around I took it seriously. I took the GREs again and did very well. I really did kick-ass applications. I worked my teaching and pastoral experience into my narratives. I made contact with professors before I applied. I decided not to apply to a few based on conversations and email exchanges with professors, documented all of this, and even mentioned some of these conversations in the appliactions that I did make, in the section where you answer the question, "why here?"
I applied to Villanova (Philosophy), Emory, Drew, Chicago, Harvard, Princeton Theological, Pitt, Lutheran Theological Chicago, FSU, Iliff/Denver, Loyola Chicago (Philosophy), Garrett/Northwestern, DePaul (Philosophy), and two MA Programs. I was accepted without funding to both MA programs; and four of the above Ph.D. programs, with tuition varying from quarter tuition to full tuition plus stipend. I was additionally admitted into the MA with partial funding into one of the philosophy departments where I had made initial application to the Ph.D., with the option of being able to transfer into the Ph.D. in a different manner than was typical at the school. I was turned down again by my alma mater. The program my former professor had suggested before gave me 75% tuition, and I called their admissions office and they said to fax them letters with my better offers, especially the one with a large stipend. I told them that I would turn those down if they gave me 90% tuition (they said that was the best they could possibly do, but encouaged me to do this). They agreed, and I made the best decision by far.
I had the job on campus of giving prospective students tours. I could often tell which ones were not serious applicants just from basic discussions. Sometimes I even got nasty emails from the students after their rejection letters came.
My program had roughly 7 students admitted my year, including 2 MAs. 8 years later, three of us are finished. All three of us got jobs though, two of us before we graduated.
When it comes to job prospects, the prospects are awful. I have friends at more elite schools, I am hearing ZERO graduates got jobs. And this is more than one institution that I have heard this about.
My bottom advice is to really investigate the placement of particular professors' students at these schools. Some big-name professors' students are not really discernable--their dissertations are largely the same project, don't really make contributions, and their advisors' recommendation letters are similar faint praise. Their dissertations receive institutional prizes but aren't really publishable and are in popular side-conversations with shelf lives that expired the year they were admitted into the program.
Also, in my particular program there were two "x-factors." First, professors generally did not leave and the administration of the division and the school had the vision to prepare for retirements, and the collegiality of the institution rubbed off postively in many ways. Not only were students not in competition with each other for their professors' time, but the professors were adequately and appropriately available to the doctoral students. They weren't looking to leave. There were no tenure scandals though the junior faculty were given rigorous tenure standards. Generally the professors were interested in each others' work, and by virtue of this they were also interested in their colleagues' students. When my advisor was going through some difficult times in his personal life, a professor (who was a 'name' professor) occasionally checked in on me to make sure I was getting enough advising or attention. This wasn't necessary, but this is the kind of community that was fostered. Students who got stalled in the program got stalled because of their own issues and circumstances, and not the professors losing interest in them, abandoning them, or leaving.
Second, there were several levels of quality control with dissertation proposals, which roughly slowed down the process of proposing the dissertation by 2-6 months. Smart students could time this process out in such a way that it did not really stall the program too long. But I was instructed numerous times that I could do a typical dissertation that is the scholarly exercise, or go the extra step and and do the real constructive theological work that is often absent from theology dissertations. I ended up doing a bit of both, but the dissertation set me up for what the next project would be. I can't tell you how important this has been to my short career and I shold also mention that this question came up in several job interviews: "What's your research agenda now that you're past the dissertation?"; "Now that you've done this huge project, what now?" In other words, the dissertation was not just a hurdle, an exercise, or a learning experience, but was a transitional moment into the world of academia. Even part of my dissertation defense was focused upon what I am to do with the dissertation now that it is done--though I did the hard work leading up to the defense that there were no surprises about the outcome of the defense. (This was not always the case.) I give this factor up as one particular reason why job prospects were better than dismal here--I even had a classmate have his dissertation accepted by a major publisher for publication 'as written.' This never happens, but it happened, and his career has really taken off.
So now I am an ordained minister with a Ph.D. and teaching and writing. A few times on this board the question of M.Div.'s arises. Honestly, find pastors you know, like, and respect (if you can find any that meet these criteria) and ask their opinions about where they went and who is doing interesting stuff. There are some great seminaries and great programs with different foci. If your goal is the Ph.D and you still want the M.Div., the big name school might help, but honestly you'd probably be better served by a denominational seminary that has some solid and recognized faculty but might often get left off of "best of" lists and don't necessarily have PhD programs--places like Lutheran Philadelphia, St Vladimir's, Wesley, United, Pacific, Austin, Meadville Lombard, Lancaster, Wake Forest come to mind. Some might even let you study off-site and transfer credits from bigger schools over the course of the three year program. There are some stigmas attached to some schools--Gordon Comwell (problematic on several levels), Asubury (too politically conservative), Harvard (lack or rigor), Princeton Theological (too narrow/embarassingly weak DMin program).
This is enough of my rant, and I hope it is helpful.