Hi, I am a bit late, but I can answer your questions as a Ph.D. student in Middle East History.
First of all, yes, you should contact your POI before applying, and if it is possible, you should ask for a short Zoom meeting to introduce yourself before applying.
Some universities do formal interviews after the application. Still, others can accept or reject you without a formal interview (I had two acceptances without a formal interview but met before the application informally.
There is no guarantee based on your CV achievements; it is all about the fit, the financial situation of the department, the willingness of the professor to accept you, your research experiences, and your ability to prove that you can survive in a Ph.D. program.