I'm looking for an honest assessment of my chances of being admitted to some PhD statistics programs ranked in 10-40 range.
Undergrad Institution: Top 10 undergrad in US -- not Ivy
Major(s): Statistics and Mathematics
GPA: 3.93 in Statistics, 3.1 in Math (some honors courses)
Type of Student: Domestic white male
GRE General Test:
Q: 170 (92%)
V: 165 (95%)
W: 5 (92%)
GRE Subject Test in Mathematics:
M: N/A (max score probably around 80th percentile with proper prep -- should I take?)
Programs Applying: PhD in Statistics -- probably with concentration in neuro or bioinformatics
Research Experience:
1.5 Years working full-time as a data scientist in a computational neuroscience lab at top 10 university
Will be first author on paper analyzing population level neural dynamics of decision-making
Semester-long one-on-one study with Math Department professor on mixing times for random walks on groups (hypercube, torus, binary trees, permutations, etc.)
Presented solutions to exercises and theory to professor -- used both probabilistic and spectral techniques to bound mixing times
Semester-long project in measure and ergodic theory with math PhD candidate
Gave presentation to math department showing that 2x mod 1 on the interval [0, 1) is isomorphic to left-shift on countably infinite sequence of iid coin flips
Semester-long project on solving Dirichlet problem for heat equation with Brownian motion with math PhD candidate
Gave presentation on solution to math department with coded simulations and graphics
Awards/Honors/Recognitions: Received small scholarship for outstanding work in extracurricular math (for my independent study in rates of convergence)
Pertinent Activities or Jobs: TA for 2 intro stats/programming classes, will TA an upper level stats course this fall, will grade for an analysis class this fall
Letters of Recommendation:
"Very strong" letter from my PI who is well-published in computational neuroscience at top 10 university
Anticipating strong letter from math professor that I studied rates of convergence with -- well-published in math, chair of undergrad studies
Strong letter from another PI who collaborates with our lab -- well published and well connected in stats and comp neuro
Math/Statistics Grades:
Statistics: All A's in Statistical Theory, Bayesian Stats, Computational Stats, Grad Bioinformatics, Nonparametric, Regression Analysis, Machine Learning
Mathematics: Got A and B in Honors Probability/Stochastic Processes I and II, B- in Advanced Linear Algebra, A- in Math Finance, B's in Calculus, no grade in Real Analysis but have done lots of analysis outside the classroom, particularly in extracurricular projects and reading/working through Rudin diligently
Any Miscellaneous Points that Might Help: Strong writer (especially compared to math students). Statement of purpose has received very positive reviews.
Applying to Where:
PHD programs: Cornell, Yale, Wisconsin, UNC, UCLA, Purdue, UC Irvine, Texas, Northwestern, New York, Rice, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Iowa, UConn
Masters programs: Harvard, Columbia, Penn, Duke, Michigan, UChicago
My biggest question is how my three undergraduate one-on-one studies--more advanced/rigorous than regular undergrad classes--will help me out for my not so great math grades. I realize it's asking a lot for someone to believe in my high level math skills when I don't have the grades for it, but the work I did outside the classroom was graduate level work and a reputable professor (and two PhD's) can attest to that
