I see the Irvine rejections are going out, so this may be too-little-too-late to be of any help, but a few details about the situation for anyone lurking who needs to know.
I talked to the program director on the phone today: extremely generous conversation, really grateful to hear from her, not least because most places don't reach out so intimately to waitlisters. 230ish applications, 5 fiction acceptances. 3 have accepted the offer, 2 have not yet and both have other offers.
Not sure how long the waitlist is, but it is ranked. They used to accept 6 in fiction (website still says as much) but funding cuts mean 5 these days: she seemed genuinely upset about this. My impression is that they rarely pull from the waitlist, though obviously not impossible. Unfortunately it does seem nearly impossible, however, that multiples on the fiction waitlist will get off it this year, given the particulars. Would love to be wrong, of course.
Good vibes all around—will make the (inevitable?) letdown all the worse. Brutal!