efdp

Just a quick note: I had really similar numbers to yours (3.0 < UGPA < 3.1, GRE > 1500) and got into a top 10 molecular bio program. I had a bit more research experience, but no publications to show for it. The fact that you've completed and published a project will, I think, look really good to the admissions committee -- they want some kind of indication that you can be productive in graduate school and there is literally no better way to demonstrate that than publishing. I came from an Ivy, so maybe that helped me a little -- can't really say how much, but I kind of doubt it was that much of a bump. For comparison my hit rate with grad apps was something like 50%, with n = ~10. I think your strategy of applying both to top-tier and second-tier institutions is a good one (and it's good to have lots of options -- you may find that you click with one program particularly well during interviews, so much so that it's obvious where you should go). But I would say that while it's not a sure thing, you would have totally reasonable chances at places like Rocky, Sloan, and UPenn. I think it is definitely not a waste of time for you to send in apps to all of your dream schools. Good luck!