Is the backup in the same school? Is there an option to continue from master's straight into PhD? And how bad do you want to get a PhD in a school of your choice? I declined backup last year, worked on improving my application and reaaplied for this year. Now I got into the school that I had no chance of getting into last year. So if you know what you want in the long run, work towards getting it the best that you can. Best of luck!