i'm all for optimism (i just like to prepare myself for rejection...), but before, we had greater than a 10% chance of winning, knowing that our applications were at least decent ( given that a ton of applications are terrible (ie people don't know how to address broader impacts, etc))
now, the applicants selected are more or less of the same caliber, so a given application receiving an award is likely to be much more random, and we probably have nearly equal chances of receiving the award