Profile Evaluation Statistics PhD: Should I retake the mathematics subject GRE?

[hopesandprayers]

I just took the math subject GRE on saturday, and I feel I did horrible based on my usual standards (see below - I'm estimating roughly 70th to 75th percentile - not sure yet).  I'm (tentatively) planning on applying to the following places, all PhD programs in statistics unless otherwise noted: Toronto, Carnegie Mellon, UCLA, Waterloo (Master's program), Washington, Michigan, Columbia, Stanford, UBC (Master's program), Chicago, Duke.

I selected to send to Stanford as one of my four "free" reports since they're the only place that requires it.  I recognize the 75th percentile is not good enough to get in there.  I don't even think the second score will reach them in time since the application is due on the 4th of December (and even though they apparently take the higher of the two and allow you to self report and receive the score later, my self reported one will probably be from the retake if I decide to do that so my report might be different than the one that they have and that could get complicated).

Anyways, would you recommend taking it again in October (registering by this Friday)?  Or should I wait to see my score and then if it's super shitty try and take it as a standby?  Or is this good enough to send to some of those other programs (in which case I think I might say fuck it and drop Stanford and Chicago from this list and just throw in that towel lol)?

My profile is as follows:

Type of Student: Undergraduate in final semester

Undergrad School: Smallish Canadian School

Undergrad Major: Statistics, Minors: mathematics, economics

Undergrad GPA: 4.30 out of 4.33 (4.33 in math and statistics)

GRE: Q = 170, V = 159, AW = 3.5

Math Subject GRE: Unknown but likely 70th to 75th percentile

Relevant Undergrad Courses & Grades: (All A+ grades) Intro Analysis I, Intro Analysis II (essentially first 11 chapters of Rudin in these two), Statistical Theory, Stochastic Processes, Applied Time Series, Complex Variables, ODEs, Sample Surveys, Design of Experiments - and currently taking: Abstract Algebra, PDEs, and two ML intro courses

Research Experience: 2 Undegraduate Research Awards (equivalent of REUs in the US) with different professors over the last two summers (one in experimental design, the other in uncertainty quantification).  No papers, this summer's project might turn into one, but not before the applications are done - I feel like I'm lacking in the ability to actually show research potential.

Recommendation Letters: 2 strong letters from professors that know me well and can speak to my mathematical background.  One that might not be perfect since he doesn't know me as well (but I've had 2 A+ grades with him and spoken to him on occasion)

Applying to: (ALL PHD IN STATISTICS except UBC) - Not 100% sure yet, but my tentative list is: Toronto, Carnegie Mellon, UCLA, Waterloo (Master's program), Washington, Michigan, Columbia, Stanford, UBC (Master's program), Chicago, Duke.

Edited September 18, 2018 by hopesandprayers

[bayessays]

If you're above the 70th percentile, I definitely don't think you'll be out of the running at Stanford.  Not sure if it's worth retaking - it would be clearer if you got a 30% and were dead set on going to Stanford. Plenty of people get into Chicago without even taking the subject test. The other schools don't need to see it at all. I wouldn't bother, but only you can make the decision. 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Do you know if your "smallish" Canadian school has a well-regarded reputation in the U.S.? Your profile looks pretty strong, even without the math subject GRE, but your list of schools is a bit top-heavy. I would recommend adding a few schools like Purdue, Iowa State, or NCSU, if you have the funds.

Also agreed with the above, a 70th percentile should be okay. In addition, many schools don't care about the math subject GRE, and I would only advise taking it if there is a major deficiency in the application (like relatively low math GPA) or if it's required as part of the application (only a select few schools). Duke even explicitly states on their PhD Program FAQs page that they do not consider the subject GRE scores.

Edited September 18, 2018 by Applied Math to Stat

[hopesandprayers]

Thank you both for the advice.  My "smallish" Canadian school has some well known professors (and the two letters I'm really confident in are from two of them).  I'll consider applying to some of the schools suggested to make to not so top heavy.