My chances of transferring to another Ph.D program

[Anna14214]

Hello, I am a first-year math Ph.D. student in the top 30 programs. In my institution, no professor is working on probability theory, so I want to transfer to another math/ stat/ applied math program where they offer probability track. I am planning to apply next year, after getting my master from current institution.

Upgrade on my application

(1) I am expecting to publish two papers in math and computational math.

(2) I will take the math subject Gre this time.

(3) Presentations: I will be presenting my work at a conference and seminar.

Downgrade on my application

(1) Failed my last semester in undergrad: during that semester, two of my family members were diagnosed with cancer, so I was all panicked and wasn't able to focus. Since I am an international student, there was no way to go back to my home to check them during that semester. In addition to this, I had another personal issue. As a result, I got an F on a graduate math course and almost failed the other two courses. Other than this semester, I got all A/A- on math and math-related courses and my GPA was 3.78.

Now my issues are all resolved and I am doing well in my qualifying courses; I am expecting to pass all the quals by the time I am applying to Ph.D. programs next year. However, due to my horrible GPA in my undergrad senior year, I am not sure if it will be possible for me to move to other Ph.D. programs even though I do well in my two years of Ph.D. I want to do research in the probability field, even if I am losing 1-2 years by switching program. Do you think I have chances of getting accepted to Ph.D. programs where they have probability specialization?

 

Thank you very much in advance.