How competitive is the CIHR CGS-M?

[ReesePeanutButterCup]

So obviously it is very competitive, but if one is seemingly a strong applicant on paper, are the odds at least decent? I only applied with one school as I have my supervisor lined up, but it seems that their CIHR award allocation is perhaps a little lower than expected given their health research program. I have good grades (3.9+) but no publications