Chances of getting into MS/PhD in statistics/math(probability)

[lostinthecayes]

I've been researching programs and I'm interesting in a few but unsure if some of these are out of my reach. All math programs I want to apply to are focused on probability.

My gpa was hurt by a C- and B- in my first semester in two general education courses. Also I'm curious how much the pass/fail grade will hurt me in the intro cs course. It was my first experience with programming and I went in thinking it would be easy and needless to say it was a trial by fire, I ended up with a C+.

Undergrad: Top 50 overall

Major: Statistics and Economics

GPA: 3.81

Statistics - 3.79

Economics - 3.77

Type of Student: American Male

Relevant Courses: Calculus I (A-), Calculus II (B), Calculus III (A),  Applied Machine Learning: Economics (A), Introduction to Proofs (A-), Probability I (A), Probability II (A), Abstract Linear Algebra (A-), Real Analysis (B), Data Science Foundations (A), Intro to Comp. Science (Pass), Data Cleaning (A), Statistical Modeling I (A), Statistical Modeling II (A), Time Series Analysis (A-), Ordinary Differential Equations (A-)

GRE General: 336

Q: 169, V: 167, A: 4.5

Research Experience: Two semesters helping a professor with economic (fiscal policy) research & independent research (under review, focused on development economics).

LOR: One from independent research advisor, one from professor I aided in their research, one from statistics professor - One should be very positive and the other two positive

MS Programs: TU Berlin (Statistics), Technical University Munich (Mathematical Data Science), University of Amsterdam (Math), Utrecht University (Math), University of Gottingen (Math), University of Bonn (Math), LMU Munich (Statistics), UIUC (Statistics), University of British Columbia (Statistics)

PhD Programs: Northwestern (Statistics), University of Chicago (Statistics), University of Washington (Statistics), UCLA (Statistics), Columbia (Statistics), UCSB (Statistics)

* I know most of these are likely completely out of my reach but thought I would see what people here thought.