"Safeties" recommendation for PhD Statistics

[Ashsig]

 

Hello everyone, I'm preparing to apply to PhD 2025 cycle and just started to look at different schools. I hope to get some advice on my profile and where should I apply. I know there is no safety for PhD but I'm not even sure where my profile stands.

Undergrad Institution: Top 100 US News with no name math department
Major(s): Mathematics
GPA: 3.8/4.0 

Type of Student: International (Asian) Female
GRE: N/A, should I take it? General or Math?

 

Research Experience:

• 2 years of independent research with a statistics professor at my school, presentations at local symposiums, hopefully publication
• Upcoming summer REU at (above average?) R1

Awards/Honors/Recognitions: some academic honors at school
Pertinent Activities or Jobs: math tutor and grader at school, 2 data analyst internships at local F500

Letters of Recommendation: 

• My research advisor, had 6 classes with him, should be positive but young and not well-known
• My professor for 3 abstract math courses, probably positive but just did well in class type
• Hopefully my upcoming REU advisor

Courses: 3 Calculus, 2 Real Analysis, 2 Linear Algebra, 4 reading Statistics, Probability Theory, Numerical Analysis, Modeling, Time Series, Data Analytics
Any Miscellaneous Points that Might Help: I got 4.0 at every semesters except for my third one where I got couple of B and C at upper level maths (Ikik) because of family issues, should I address it in SOP?

 

Programs Interest: Statistics, Applied Math (open to Biostatistics/Financial Math/Operation Research but not sure if my profile is relevant)

Dream Schools: Stanford, Columbia, UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC Irvine, USC, Boston

(All reach? Any match? Any literally impossible that I shouldn't waste my time at all?) 

 

You probably notice I'm only interested in big cities on the coasts, my only other non-negotiable is livable stipend. Otherwise I don't have expectation on ranking or well-known PI (not that I can anyways). I'd be really appreciate any program recommendation, especially for "safeties".
 

Hope y'all a great day! 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

I am afraid that those are all reach schools. University of Southern California Department of Data Sciences and Operations  is in the business school, btw, so they accept very, veru few PhD students each year. 

The competition among international students (even those with degrees in the U.S.) is extremely stiff, and your profile may not be competitive for those particular programs when compared with the top applicants from Tsinghua U., Peking U., SNU, ISI, among 20 or so other schools. A lot of the top applicants from these universities not only have meticulous grades but also substantive research experience including co-authorship on papers that have been submitted to reputable journals.

International students who earned a degree in the U.S. are usually more competitive if they have first earned a Masters degree from a reputable program in the U.S. (e.g. University of Chicago) or if they earned their degree from an elite American undergrad institution. So if you are willing to do a Masters first, then you might be able to get in somewhere.

Given the competition, I would suggest that you also apply to Masters programs and that you broaden your list of programs to include other universities that are not in big cities on the coast. You could also look at lower ranked Biostatistics programs. 

[Ashsig]

Should I take your words as "don't have much hope" or "don't even bother to apply"? Atp I think I can only improve my profile by publish the paper, would it increase my chance at all if I assumbly were accepted to a moderate journal? Or my credential is still the problem?

I'm open to Biostats program but I wasn't aware it was even an option until recently, so I don't know if I'm qualified and probably couldn't add anything biostats related to my profile for next year cycle.

 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

38 minutes ago, Ashsig said:

Should I take your words as "don't have much hope" or "don't even bother to apply"? Atp I think I can only improve my profile by publish the paper, would it increase my chance at all if I assumbly were accepted to a moderate journal? Or my credential is still the problem?

I'm open to Biostats program but I wasn't aware it was even an option until recently, so I don't know if I'm qualified and probably couldn't add anything biostats related to my profile for next year cycle.

 

You can apply to as many schools as your budget allows, but I would not expect amazing results at the schools you listed with only a Bachelor's. This is because you're competing against a lot of applicants from the top universities in China, India, South Korea (plus a few from Canada, Australia, the U.K., and some other European countries), and these applicants often have taken a ton of advanced math classes on their transcript like measure theory, functional analysis, probability theory, etc... and many of them also have Masters degrees (e.g. the applicants from ISI and SNU typically have them), as well as research experience and papers that they published in or submitted to journals.

You might have a slightly better chance if you got a Masters from a very reputable program first (like U. Chicago, U. of Washington, Duke, Stanford, etc.). Even with an MS, I would probably not apply to Stanford, Columbia, or UC Berkeley, since the chances are slim, IMO. You could try UCLA, UC Irvine, and Boston U. though. If you are going to apply mainly to PhD programs (without doing an MS first), then I would focus mostly on schools at the level of UCI and lower. If you are less picky geographically, you can also improve your chances of getting into some PhD program with just a BS -- it just may not be in a large city like you desire. Another option is also to apply to statistics PhD programs that are in Math/Applied Math departments like SUNY Stony Brook Applied Mathematics & Statistics.

I would explain the grades in the third semester briefly but not dwell on it too much -- it's better to just briefly mention what happened and then immediately explain how you overcame the issue and went on to earn a perfect 4.0 every semester since then.

 

[ohrnor]

I have a pretty similar profile (refer to my previous post for details). In summary, I didn't do real analysis (I should have), have similar research experience, and higher GPA from a somewhat more prestigious/higher ranked uni. Based on my results and your profile, I would say Irvine and BU are match--I got into Irvine after being on their medium list and interviewing with them; I got into BU straightaway. Other schools are reaches, which is not to say that you don't have a chance, but do manage you expectations because applications are random and competitive. I would apply mostly in the top 10-40 range for statistics, top 10-20 programs are probably a bit of a reach and top 20-40 should be where you get some interest. Also look into biostatistics, it is not that different from statistics and doesn't require prior knowledge in biology. You can also apply to top 10-30 programs there to increase your chances. While more biostat applicants/current students seem to have a masters, it's entirely possible to get into a good program without one (like I did). For a good location, you might have to sacrifice ranking somewhat, which I don't think is a huge loss, especially if you don't want to go into academia. 

Edited February 28 by ohrnor

[ohrnor]

9 minutes ago, ohrnor said:

I have a pretty similar profile (refer to my previous post for details). In summary, I didn't do real analysis (I should have), have similar research experience, and higher GPA from a somewhat more prestigious/higher ranked uni. Based on my results and your profile, I would say Irvine and BU are match--I got into Irvine after being on their medium list and interviewing with them; I got into BU straightaway. Other schools are reaches, which is not to say that you don't have a chance, but do manage you expectations because applications are random and competitive. I would apply mostly in the top 10-40 range for statistics, top 10-20 programs are probably a bit of a reach and top 20-40 should be where you get some interest. Also look into biostatistics, it is not that different from statistics and doesn't require prior knowledge in biology. You can also apply to top 10-30 programs there to increase your chances. While more biostat applicants/current students seem to have a masters, it's entirely possible to get into a good program without one (like I did). For a good location, you might have to sacrifice ranking somewhat, which I don't think is a huge loss, especially if you don't want to go into academia. 

by the way I don't want to reduce programs down to ranking. if you are interested in certain topics, look into that too! I was very confused last year as to what kind of programs are worth applying to for my profile, and knowing what I know now, I would've adjusted my strategies a bit. hindsight is 20/20 but I thought my experience might be useful for you, hence why I divided programs into tiers. 

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Since the OP mentioned having a few B/C's in the upper level math classes, that's why I 'guessed' that UCI and BU might be slight reaches. However, those two universities seem like more plausible targets for the OP's profile (unlike Stanford, UC Berkeley, Columbia, and USC, which I doubt -- USC because they accept like less than 5 PhD students every year with 2 or 3 matriculating). In addition, if the lower grades are only one off-semester and not a continuous pattern, then it can be explained very briefly in the application. Again, the way that it's explained matters -- you need to "pivot" quickly to explaining that after you overcame the family issues, every other semester was a 4.0.