Am I overestimating or underestimating my chances

[burnerburner]

Undergrad Institution: Best stat program in my country, QS subject rank 100-150 idk how accurate it is 
Major(s): Statistics 
GPA: 3.55, Wes conversion says 3.7 (I will probably graduate in top 5/100 since this year's 1st place had 3.45)

Type of Student: International 

Programs Applying: Statistics PhD

 

Research Experience: I did 4 final projects in statistics classes and working on a paper this semester also in statistics.

Classes: My program had Calculus 1,2,3, Advanced Calculus, Linear algebra, Diff, and A LOT of theoretical statistics classes like 2 linear modeling, 2 math stat, 2 probability, Stochastic processes, multivariate analysis, Statistical programming,2 courses in R 2 in pyhton and some applied stat/data science courses. Grades are almost perfect outside of 2 semesters. I will mention the problems I had during those 2 semesters (Should I?), taken courses in astronomy and ecology since I thought I could do interdisciplinary work but couldn't find a lot of departments that have people working on those. Did not retake any courses to improve grades.

Applying to: Penn State(to work on astrostats), Iowa State(one of my professors did PhD here might be able to get reference), Purdue(The prof that taught me R is currently working on data science group there so maybe some recognition to my undergrad institute), Iowa, Umass, Virginia, Wake Forest master's program(I heard they are known for providing funding for masters? Not yet sure if I will apply)

I am using my parents' money to apply so I can't apply to a lot of schools, maybe I can afford like 2 more. I tried not to overshoot, should I apply to any top 10 programs? or should I use my leftover money to apply to more "safe" schools?

Edited October 13 by burnerburner
forgot to mention a detail