Admission Chances (Am I cooked? 😭🙏)

[Hz135]

Hey everyone! I’m looking for advice on my chances of getting into a top Statistics/Biostatistics/ Applied Math/OR/CS PhD program. Here’s my background:

 

Profile:

• Education: Junior Math Major at Non target University, graduating May 2026

• GPA: 3.5 (expected)

• Courses Taken:

• Math: Calculus I-III (C-, B, B-) (Couldn’t take final for two of these classes due to family emergency), Linear Algebra (A), Matrix Computation (graduate level) (A), Complex Analysis (A), Proofs in Higher Mathematics (A), Mathematical Probability and Statistics I & II (A-,A) Statistical Inference (graduate level) (A)

• CS: Computational Finance (A), Programming in Python (A).

 

• Research Experience:

• Hidden Markov Models (HMM): Currently working on a paper about jump detection analysis.

• Conformal Prediction: Researching its applications in large language models (LLMs) and AI systems. (Hoping to publish in A or A- AI/ML conference by the time of application).

• Primitive Polynomials: Analyzing maximal runs in polynomials and random numbers, testing properties related to finite fields.

• Pure Math: Studying properties of p-adic integers.

 

 

LORs: Three Professors I’ve been working with. One has a PhD in Math from MIT/Harvard/Yale, other in CS from top EU university, last post doc from Stanford/MIT/Princeton.

 

Do you think I stand a chance at top 20 programs?

Edited January 12 by Hz135

[Hz135]

Thank you for your comment. So I will be taking real analysis, abstract algebra and two other CS classes whilst applying which is next fall (2025) so I probably wouldn’t have the grades for them when I send out the applications? Would that hurt my chances? And yes I meant something like Neurips/ ICML/ ICLR etc. Any A or A- conference. I will publish the HMM paper in a Journal soon too. Lastly yes I am the first author in all of the research projects. 

[open_ball]

Your research is really great, but some programs do filter by GPA. With that in mind, I think you should definitely try at top 20 programs if you have the funds, but it will be on the more difficult side as you have a 3.5 from a not-well-known school. 

Are there extenuating circumstances for the 3.5? Perhaps a bad semester due to family emergency? 

If I were you, I would try to get a funded master's to allay the GPA, or I would delay applying until after the real analysis grades come out. Do your advisors have contacts that can help you? 

This is because many programs do use real analysis as a signal of whether or not an applicant will be able to survive the first 2 years of coursework and quals. 

 

 

[Hz135]

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Edited January 29 by Hz135

[Hz135]

20 hours ago, open_ball said:

Your research is really great, but some programs do filter by GPA. With that in mind, I think you should definitely try at top 20 programs if you have the funds, but it will be on the more difficult side as you have a 3.5 from a not-well-known school. 

Are there extenuating circumstances for the 3.5? Perhaps a bad semester due to family emergency? 

If I were you, I would try to get a funded master's to allay the GPA, or I would delay applying until after the real analysis grades come out. Do your advisors have contacts that can help you? 

This is because many programs do use real analysis as a signal of whether or not an applicant will be able to survive the first 2 years of coursework and quals. 

 

 

Hey thanks for responding. So I'm going to be retaking Calc 1 to get an A this semester and another class I did terrible in. If all goes well my gpa should be 3.6ish. Also I'm going to be taking a lot more Math classes whilst applying and rn. This is an updated list of my coursework:

Calc 1-3 (A,B,B-), Linear Algebra (A), Intro to higher Mathematics (A), Mathematical Probability and Statistics 1 (A-), Probability and Statistical Inference (Graduate level) (A), Matrix Computation and Algebra (Graduate level) (A), Complex Analysis (A/A-), Non Linear Optimization (Graduate level) (A), Topological Data Analysis (Graduate level) (A).

Taking whilst applying (Won't have grades but can update once I get them end of December): Real Analysis, Abstract Algebra, Numerical Methods, Graph Theory and Combinatorics, One of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/ Measure Theoretic Probability/ Functional Analysis/ Stochastic Calculus (All Graduate Level), Machine Learning. 

Yes! I did terrible my first semester (2.3ish gpa) cause of family issues and inability to take finals and other quizzes for 3 different classes. Also got very sick during Calc 3 final so couldn't study for it. 

Don't think I can go for a masters since I'm an international student studying in the US and most scholarships or finaid are just not available to me. Can't afford to pay. My LORs are good, although no connection.