Advice on adding schools to my current list of applications

[RWBG]

I'm interested in formal IPE, with a particular focus on international trade, and I'm part-way through a 1-year master's program at a well-respected university (top 25ish?), which was also my undergrad institution. My profile, unfortunately, has some fairly significant weaknesses. While my GRE was strong (V740 Q800 A5.5), my GPA is relatively low (approximately 3.5 overall) and exhibits extremely high variance and kurtosis values, consisting of mostly very high grades with extreme deviations (e.g. a D- in the easiest economics course I've taken, and As in many others.) Moreover, my grades do not exhibit a particularly clear trendline upward; they were very strong in first year, poor in second year, and then steadily rose, with my final year GPA being slightly above a 3.5 (again, with a single grade dragging down the average.) My political science GPA is about a 3.8, so it's mostly economics and math coursework dragging my overall GPA down, though again, with high variance and kurtosis amongst those grades.

As a result of these weaknesses, my plan this year is to apply to a subset of programs (indicated in my signature) based on the understanding that the admissions process has a fairly large stochastic component, but to focus on applying after completion of my MA, so that I have a year of demonstrated consistent performance (my school, incidentally, does not have a reputation for grade inflation, and MA courses are a subset of the courses offered to Ph.D students.) I will not have any grades reported by most of this year's application deadlines. I also might do an MA in economics in the intervening year, should I not be admitted to a Ph.D program this year. As such, my current list includes only my top choices, and not all the schools I would be interested in attending. I hope to solicit your thoughts on (1) whether my strategy makes sense; (2) whether or not I should be including more upper-mid range schools on my list. My initial position was that if I went to a school that was outside my top choices this year, I would always wonder whether I could have gotten into a program I prefer if I had waited. Now I wonder whether that position might be a bit too greedy given my profile.

Anyways, two schools I'm considering adding are Emory and Penn State; Emory in particular seems to have strong placement, and has Eric Reinhardt, whose interests are closely aligned with mine (i.e. formal and trade.) Both seem to have strong formal and methods training. So specific advice on those two schools would also be appreciated.

Edit: Penn State has Bumba Mukherjee, whose interests are also closely aligned with mine, but I don't know if their placement is as strong.

Edited November 20, 2011 by RWBG

[Penelope Higgins]

Your list covers all the obvious places one would suggest. And I think you are overselling the weaknesses of your profile - you've got a clear research interest, a decent course record, and nice test scores - that is enough to get your file a look most places.

The one outside the box option that occurs to me is Virginia, where one could put together a nice committee of Leblang, Medina, and some of the junior formal/quant IR and comparative folks. Some of their students seem to place (including a theorist at NYU a couple of years ago) but I don't have a sense of the overall placement prospects.

[RWBG]

Thanks for the advice, Penelope. So would you suggest I include Emory and Penn State (and generally, more upper-mid tier schools) on this year's list of applications? Do you have any thoughts on my strategy of applying to a restricted subset of schools with the intention of applying to larger set next year?

[Penelope Higgins]

I'd say that the broader strategy is a purely personal decision. You're banking on the belief that waiting a year will improve your file significantly (which is not unreasonable) at the cost of however much an MA in Econ will set you back, plus the cost of waiting a year to start on the career path you prefer. So far, you are considering what I see as all the relevant factors. Underlying that is that you seem to believe you won't be happy at a lower-ranked school unless you've taken what you see as your best shot at top programs. Nobody can advise you that, but you need to think about it yourself and decide whether that is really how you feel. Sorry not to give you any clear advice - I don't think, to be honest, that there is any to be given.

[RWBG]

I think that's fair, and I think it is, in fact, clear advice! The only other question I suppose I have is one that I imagine is difficult to answer; from your experience, how important for placements do you think school brand is between, say, Emory-level and UCLA-level schools in the rankings? I'm trying to parse out how much of the difference in placement is because of the ranking of the school someone went to, and how much of the difference is because good candidates tend to be admitted to and choose to go to higher ranked schools.

[Penelope Higgins]

Because of the selection problem you describe, your question (as you know) can't be answered without specific knowledge on individual grad students. The answer is also complicated by the fact that placement is subfield and specialty-specific, even in top 10 departments and especially as you move lower in the rankings. I can think of some Emory grads who placed very well (like Dan Slater at Chicago) and certainly the funding and training seem strong (I have no connection at all to that department) so I don't see the downside to applying. But that's me: if you really believe you will only be happy at an Emory once you've taken your best chance at an NYU, there is a downside because if you get into Emory this year and turn them down, it may affect your chances in applying there the next year (I have not seen this situation much at the departments where I have done grad admissions, so I don't know how it would play out to be honest).

[RWBG]

Thanks Penelope; your comments here have been helpful, as usual.

[VivaVLC]

Northwestern has one IPE person who I know about (Nelson), and I know they tend to value high GRE scores above grades, so maybe give it a shot?

[RWBG]

Northwestern doesn't seem to make sense given my formal interests. Austen-Smith and Feddersen are there, but they don't seem to have much connection to the political science department. Beyond them, they have one or two people doing formal stuff, but broadly Northwestern doesn't seem like a great fit.