Ph.D. Completion and Attrition

[ohhello]

So I'm starting to dig into the specifics of several Ph.D. programs I've applied to and have reached the point where I want to find information about completion and attrition. I thought asking the forum to share our collective knowledge concerning completion/attrition (and perhaps demographics) might prove more fruitful than doing a point-blank google search. Would anyone like to share what they know concerning the completion/attrition and the sociology Ph.D.?

For instance, is it weird that the completion rates for the 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 Northwestern cohorts after 6 years hovered around 0-9%? And for both the 2000 and 2001 cohorts, the completion rate was only 45% after 10 years?

[sciencegirl]

What other schools are you looking at? Also, isn't there a really high rate already as it is for all schools of people not finishing? Where are you getting your NW stats?

[ohhello]

Those numbers are specifically for the Northwestern Sociology Ph.D. program - scroll down to sociology.

Right now I'm trying to find data for UCSD, Berkeley, and Rutgers, but it hasn't been so easy. Northwestern had a link to program stats on the front page of its graduate school website.

Edited February 17, 2012 by ohhello

[quantitative]

Those numbers are specifically for the Northwestern Sociology Ph.D. program - scroll down to sociology.

Right now I'm trying to find data for UCSD, Berkeley, and Rutgers, but it hasn't been so easy. Northwestern had a link to program stats on the front page of its graduate school website.

Most schools guard this data unless it's something they're showing off. For those of you doing visits, you might be able to find out in person. Let us know what you find out.

Edited February 17, 2012 by quantitative

[Chuck]

Nerd alert…

Every 10 years, the NRC (National Research Council) publishes a comprehensive dataset on all PhD programs in the US. You can download the excel file and sift through the numbers on everything from % minority faculty, publications per faculty, average # of years till completion.. etc.

I did this for the “top 30” programs in Sociology (see screenshot below). Each year the NRC collects information for each program on the # of students enrolling and the # of PhD’s granted. They present each value as an average over 5 years (in this case, each is from the same time range: 2002-2006).

To gain a rough estimate of completion rate, I divided # of PhD’s granted by # of incoming students.

*Note that Harvard’s program in Social Policy is not really graduating “183%” of incoming students, rather students are likely shifting around between Harvard’s 3 programs in sociology. Similar things must be happening at Columbia (121%), Penn (109%), & Cornell (100%). This rough methodology obviously has flaws.

[sciencegirl]

Thanks so much for all your work on this! One flaw would be that you are comparing sets of times that don't correlate... would you be able to easily do it where you look at numbers incoming from say 1998-2002, compared with outgoing 2002-2006? Sad how schools just don't report this number as part of their USNWR ranking... I think if they did, you'd see every program helping each one of their graduate students get a doctorate no matter what (sort of how the top Ivy's make it really hard for their undergraduates not to graduate since their completion rate plays a roll in their USNWR rankings).

Edited February 19, 2012 by sciencegirl

[ohhello]

This is beautiful, thank you.

[maximus82]

To gain a rough estimate of completion rate, I divided # of PhD’s granted by # of incoming students.

Why did you do this? You're comparing two different groups of people that's why you get such odd ratios.

[sciencegirl]

@maximus... yeah, why I suggested that a better way to look at it would be to try and get the years as closely to match up in when the come in and then when those same people leave.. say, look at incoming between 1998-2002, and then outgoing from 2002-2006.. arguably though, you would want a spread that is more around 6-7 years as that seems to be more accurate as to how long it takes a cohort to graduate (if they do)... so better for something like average incoming from 1995-2002, then average phDs granted from 2002-2009.

[Chuck]

Ok people, I'm the first to say that it's a very rough metric here! I only have one of the NRC datasets, so (as many of you have pointed out), I'm comparing a snapshot at the same time of two different groups of people. The ratio therefore works best for programs that have kept a steady admit rate. But it's far from perfect, as you all have rightly pointed out! Short of getting the data directly from the schools or tracking down the earlier NRC dataset (anyone? Bueller?) it may be the best we can do right now.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Chuck

[ohhello]

Here's a link to the dataset Chuck mentioned.

[sciencegirl]

@Chuck.. no ungratefulness here.. Just wondering if you had the older data set.. the interesting thing is that it seems like all the schools have a decently sharp attrition rate... 50-60% graduation rates across the board using your metrics.. and in reality, this doesn't surprise me. I heard some shocking tale of a cohort from one of the top publics, where only 5 of the original 20 cohort that entered ten years ago had graduated...

[MashaMashaMasha]

Folks who are interested in analyzing the earlier data might use this 1995 report: http://www.nap.edu/html/researchdoc/ from the National Academies of Science. Same source, but they may have changed methodology between the two reports so the metric still isn't flawless...

Edited February 19, 2012 by MashaMashaMasha

[faculty]

In general, I don't think the metric above is as skewed as some people are letting on. However, rather than choosing a school based on those numbers, I recommend checking out this sociological exploration of the structural (and individual) causes of attrition: Leaving the Ivory Tower. It's easier - and more accurate - to consider how the attributes of departments that Lovitts talks about are, or are not, currently representative of the departments you visit.

[sciencegirl]

@faculty... I'm assuming you read Lovitts's work? What does she say about this issue? Why do so many graduate students not finish? Not all of us have $40+ dollars to get a used copy or access to a library right now...

[sleepycat]

I would assume grad students don't finish because they get too drained, found they don't like academia, can't stand to be in school that long. Despite starting with the best intentions, life happens.

[jenjenjen]

Article by Lovitts about the same issue if you don't want to read the book: http://ehrweb.aaas.o.../6/context.html

Or to super simplify: it's about how integrated the students are into their departmental communities. The only measurable difference between completers and noncompleters that is visible *during their first year* is knowledge about their program, and graduate school in general. (Though women drop out more than men, American students more than international, and students in the humanities most, then social sciences, then hard sciences.) So it sin't about having more research experience or taking certain courses in undergraduate. Aaaand is not a problem that can be fixed by choosing "better" students. The problem is not in admissions.

So looking beyond the incoming statistics, it's basically about how the level of both academic and social integration. "Academic integration develops through formal interactions between and among graduate students and faculty as they work together on common tasks to achieve the primary goals of graduate education: intellectual and professional development. Social integration develops through informal, casual interactions between and among graduate students and faculty outside the classroom."

So sciences often do better with this because the departments are super structured and people are, to a certain extent, all doing the same thing. Plus you generally have an academic advisor by the end of your first year and you work on his project throughout your entire time in grad school. But if you are in a non-lab social science or the humanities, and basically conducting research in isolation, it's not so good for the snuggly bonding time. So in these disciplines those that complete their degree are more likely to participate in brown bag lunches, holiday parties, monthly pub nights - slash be part of departments that try to arrange such things. Even only giving students group offices, instead of individual, or even making everyone's mail box in the same place, can be helpful in student retention

Edited February 19, 2012 by jenjenjen

[sciencegirl]

That's great advice... thanks so much for the summary and finding that online resource.. I hate it when I see a book I want to read but can't access it right away. Thanks @faculty for pointing this stuff out. So the main lesson here is, go to your department's holiday party and bond with your department!

[socscholar]

Duke keeps it real: http://gradschool.duke.edu/about/statistics/completesoc.htm

[sciencegirl]

Do you think graduation rates are higher at private schools with better funding, than larger publics where it might be more sink or swim/get lost in the crowd/tight competition for funding? The Duke number seems high (which is great!).. for some reason, I was thinking that it was more around 60%, but maybe this is from public programs?

[socscholar]

This website http://www.phdcompletion.org/promising/selection.asp# including all the info under "promising practices" hints at important factors in encouraging completion. It highlights initiatives the PhD programs should encourage to make sure students complete in a timely matter. I think I will use it to evaluate the level of support of prospective PhD programs.

And @sciencegirl, yes, the website cites findings that financial stress is a top reason for dropping out, and I'm not surprised.

[FertMigMort]

I'm trying to stay somewhat anonymous, but I checked our internal statistics and they don't match the ones posted by Chuck at all. (ETA: Not that those numbers weren't interesting and useful, Chuck!) I think it's because the size of our cohorts was increasing from 2002-2006, so if a program is growing these numbers won't match up well either. The information is still useful though, because if a program won't release attrition statistics, they might still be willing to tell you if the cohort size is increasing or if completion time has been increasing. Combined with the NRC information, you can make an educated guess about the program you're interested in.

Also, we have a former Northwestern student who transferred to our program who isn't reflected in the original statistics reported, but should be.

Take everything reported by a school with a grain of salt. My program loves to trumpet the time to matriculation, but the real story is much more complicated.

Edited February 20, 2012 by FertMigMort

[sciencegirl]

@fertmigmort.. how does one go about transferring? Is that common? Does it almost always have to happen with an advisor transfer, or does a student just make contacts with another program and negotiate this under the table?

[FertMigMort]

@fertmigmort.. how does one go about transferring? Is that common? Does it almost always have to happen with an advisor transfer, or does a student just make contacts with another program and negotiate this under the table?

I know of two transfers into our department. One person came with their advisor from their below 60 school to our top 20 school (lucky them!) The other left Northwestern for unknown reasons and came here instead after their masters, but before their comprehensive exam. I know the latter did not come in with someone, they just switched programs. As far as I know, with the exception of an advisor transfer, you just apply like everyone else. I don't think it's very common, although anecdotally through friends in other programs, I know of at least one transfer student at every school.

One of our attritors was considering applying to another program before they left; that application was not going to be disclosed to our department unless they had decided to take the offer.

@Those already attending: Are there transfer students at your school?

Edited February 20, 2012 by FertMigMort

[giacomo]

is it common in social sciences that advisers take their students along with them when they move?