Advice on which PhD programs would be realistic goals

[WhiteLion]

Hello, I am new here, but have been reading posts for a while.  I'm interested in a PhD in Stats/Applied Math starting Fall 2015 and I've been able to glean some useful information from the admissions threads, but I don't have a great sense for how competitive I would be compared to other applicants and what tier of school I should be aiming for.  I'm putting up a profile in the hopes that some of you might be able to help me figure out what would be realistic.  I am interested in applied probability and stochastics and so I am willing to consider both applied math or stats as appropriate.

 

Type of Student: Domestic White Male

 

Undergrad Institution: Top 40 Private School
Majors: Mathematics, Music
GPA: 3.7 overall, but only 3.0 in Math

Courses: Calc 3(1-2 in HS), DiffEq, 2 sem Real Analysis, 2 sem Abs Alg, Complex Analysis, Probability, Mathematical Modeling, Number Theory, Geometry

 

Masters Institution: Second-tier state school(not highly ranked)

Degree: MA in Mathematical Statistics

GPA: 4.0 so far, confident I can finish strong

Courses(that I will have when I finish): 2 sem Probability Theory, 2 sem Real Analysis, Applied Linear Alg, Mathematical Statistics, Distribution Theory, Time-Series, a couple of other electives yet to be chosen

GRE General Test:
Q: 170
V: 170
W: 5.5

 

Math GRE: haven't taken yet

 

Research Experience: Nothing noteworthy

Relevant Jobs: Experience as a TA and math tutor for various math/stats courses

Letters of Rec: Have two strong ones lined up already, from two different institutions.  Should be able to find another writer by time I finish.  A bit worried people at my current school won't be very well known since it isn't highly ranked.

Research Interests: Applied probability and stochastics, modeling risk

 

Other thoughts: My poor overall undergrad math GPA is due to wildly variable grades in advanced math courses.  Unfortunately, I was not very mature and decided not to put out the effort some classes required, so for example, I got a C in Abs Alg 1 and an A in Abs Alg 2 in the same course sequence with the same instructor.  My strategy was to get into a masters somewhere realistic(a couple steps down in prestige from my undergrad) and excel there academically to mitigate my poor undergrad math grades and show that I can handle graduate level theoretical math.

 

I would appreciate your advice on which PhD programs I should be looking at, as well as anything else you think I should know.

 

Thanks in advance!

[Stat Assistant Professor]

The top schools will be hard to break -- there is very little room for error unless you have something *very* outstanding in your application (i.e. you have very glowing letters from rockstar professors or you're a member of an underrepresented group). You will definitely need to address the poor grades in upper division math in your statement of purpose, but you need to put emphasis on the fact that you have matured since college. You may want your letter of recommendation writers to address your lower grades as well, but to stress that you are one of the best students they've ever had and that your grades are not reflective of your ability.

 

You should definitely speak with your adviser and your professors to find out what would be an appropriate list of schools to apply to where you have some chance of getting in. However, assuming that you can get glowing letters of recommendations and score well on the mathematics subject GRE, I would suggest having places like Indiana-Bloomington and UC San Diego (if you apply in math - these depts have applied math/statistics reseach under their math departments), SUNY Stony Brook (if you apply in applied math), and Purdue and Ohio State (if you apply in stats) as your "reach" schools. Otherwise, you may have much more luck at mid-tier to lower-ranked or unranked programs in stats and programs that are mid-tier in math/applied math.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Applied Math to Stat

[WhiteLion]

Thanks for your advice.

 

My hope is that even if I did poorly in some undergrad advanced classes, that if I have subsequently taken graduate level classes in the same areas and done well, this is evidence that I have addressed the problem even if these classes are not at a highly ranked institution.  I definitely plan to address this in my SOP, as I did when I applied for MAs, and thus far I have been at or near the top of my grad classes in analysis and probability, so I could certainly honestly ask letter writers to comment on that.

 

I also have a sort of out in that I have an offer for Fall 2014 if I switch fields at a top 25 school in that field.  I would prefer to study math/stats, but if I won't be able to get into a good PhD maybe I should take the offer.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Just being real, the top programs in math/stat seem to have little room for mistakes like poor grades in math/stat (even a Masters degree may not be sufficient to overcome this), and your chances may not be great, barring very unusual things that otherwise set your application apart (e.g. a famous LOR writer). The lower down the ranks you go, though, the more forgiving the admissions committees will be, e.g. I have a MS from a mathematics department ranked in the 60-70 range on USNWR, and they have accepted a few PhD students with low 3.0 and high 2.0 GPAs but who done very well in Masters programs in math.

 

I'm sure you must have some very other positive attributes since you have been accepted to a top 25 PhD program in another field, so it is possible that I am underestimating your chances... but without knowing the other stuff and based SOLELY on the information you've posted in this profile, I think a realistic list of schools for you would have Ohio State (for stats) and Indiana-Bloomington (for math) as being on the upper end of places to aim for. Also, keep in mind that rankings aren't everything. There are some "lower ranked" schools that are very solid and that have great academic/industry placement -- for academia (if that is your end goal), as long as you work with a good adviser who is reputable and who has a strong publication/citation record and get some publications before going on the market, you could potentially be in better shape than someone from a top tier school who isn't as productive.

[WhiteLion]

I don't doubt that your advice is accurate.  I'm personally a bit surprised that poor undergrad grades are a worse flaw than the pedigree of my MA, but certainly, as you say, when the pool of applicants is deep, schools can afford to be picky about anything and everything.

 

And sadly no, there is nothing else remarkable about me.  I got into that other program because someone there knows me very well and must really want me there.

 

I'm also more interested in industry rather than academia, so I'm sure I have room to attend a lesser ranked program and still find employment coming out, but with how competitive everything is these days, I certainly want to see if I can get myself into a school that has both a respected department and a suitable adviser for me to work with given my research interests.

 

Thanks again for you advice, and if you or anyone else has any further input, I would be glad to hear.

[statisticsfall2014]

I think you have some really good things going on (masters GPA, GRE Scores, and the Fact your MA was in specifically mathematical statistics). This should show application committees that you have the requisite mathematical ability. One thing to keep in mind: You won't get in anywhere you don't apply. I don't think it would be totally out of the question to apply to top tier schools like NC State, CMU, etc.. since they're more on the applied side. Just remember to not ONLY apply to top tier schools, be sure to apply to places you're convinced you will get into if you're end goal is to be in a PHD program next year no matter what. I think there's definitely schools that will arbitrarily cut you off based on undergrad GPA, but other schools won't and will look closer at your application, and if you can give them a good SOP, reasoning for going to grad school, and have contacted some professors ont he admissions committee, who knows.

This leads to an interesting question I think: Based on this years results, which schools do we think are more based on numbers(GPA, GRE..) and which schools do we think look more for fit:

 

My guesses:

1. (More geared toward numbers) Duke, UCLA, Columbia, Michigan....

2. (Fit) NC State, Berkeley, Carnegie Mellon....

[Stat Assistant Professor]

^ That is a good point. There are a few top schools that seem to be a little bit more lenient with GPA - Carnegie Mellon and NC State come to mind immediately. So the OP could afford a few more reach schools, but in general, I think he should be targetting his search in the middle to lower range.

 

I think Berkeley cares a lot about grades in upper division math and stat classes, actually. Their application made us submit a detailed list of all upper division math classes taken, including grade earned, instructor, textbook used, and description of topics. I think you are right though that Berkeley places a little bit less importance on overall GPA, but they scrutinize grades earned in math and stat classes pretty closely. So if that is the case, the OP's chances with Berkeley are not great.

[bsharpe269]

I actually doubt that your undergrad grades will hurt you too bad since you have done so well in your masters. You have proven you can handle the course work. if you are still worried about that then a strong math gre could also help.

 

I would actually be more worried about your lack of research experience. Can you do a project over the summer? I think that would make a huge difference in your application.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

I actually doubt that your undergrad grades will hurt you too bad since you have done so well in your masters. You have proven you can handle the course work. if you are still worried about that then a strong math gre could also help.

 

I would actually be more worried about your lack of research experience. Can you do a project over the summer? I think that would make a huge difference in your application.

Actually, in mathematics, not having an REU or research experience won't matter that much (as far as I can tell and based on my convos with math professors who serve on admissions committees). Many REUs do not resemble graduate-level research in mathematics, so the letters of recommendation, grades, and amount of exposure to graduate-level courses carry the most weight (though the top tier schools will also place heavy importance on the subject GRE and it's not competely unheard of for applicants to MIT, Princeton, Harvard, etc. to have math publications either). The statistics professors on this board have also confirmed that research experience isn't as important as research potential either (which they feel is best assessed by grades and letters of recommendation).

Also, there is actually very little room for error for the top PhD programs in math and statistics. A poor grade in analysis or abstract algebra is unforgivable for the top programs in math, even if one has a Masters degree and gets A's in graduate analysis and algebra. As anecdotal evidence, another poster on this board and over at mathematicsgre.com had a 3.5ish undergrad GPA from a top 20 school; he obtained a Masters degree in pure math with a 4.0 GPA and achieved a very high subject test score, but he was still rejected across the board one year. According to him, his undergrad GPA and the lack of having taken a Masters level probability/statistics sequence were the main reasons for his rejections.  I also had a high Masters GPA, and it was not enough to overcome a 3.5 undergraduate GPA for the top schools. I agree that this applicant and most other applicants can definitely handle the coursework -- but when there are so many strong applicants, adcoms can afford to be picky and will typically (but not always) go with the ones who have the least blips in their academic performance (of course there are exceptions).

However, once you get outside the top 20 schools, there is a little bit more flexibility. I got into every school I applied to that was ranked in the 20-30 range (when you separate stats from biostats) but was rejected from nearly every school I applied to ranked above that. So I don't think I was competitive enough for the top 20, but definitely competitive for the ones ranked below that.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Applied Math to Stat

[CommonerCoffee]

Would you also say that a poor grade in abstract algebra is unforgivable for top stat programs or just math? Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but it seems like statistics as a study isn't too related to abstract algebra so I was under the impression that it's just another math class in that regard.

[bsharpe269]

Actually, in mathematics, not having an REU or research experience won't matter that much (as far as I can tell and based on my convos with math professors who serve on admissions committees). Many REUs do not resemble graduate-level research in mathematics, so the letters of recommendation, grades, and amount of exposure to graduate-level courses carry the most weight (though the top tier schools will also place heavy importance on the subject GRE and it's not competely unheard of for applicants to MIT, Princeton, Harvard, etc. to have math publications either). The statistics professors on this board have also confirmed that research experience isn't as important as research potential either (which they feel is best assessed by grades and letters of recommendation).

 

Hmm this seems very different then my impression on research importance. My undergrad was in math and I was advised to get all the research experience I could. I did research all 4 years of undergrad. Also, all of the students at my school who got into top programs had tons of research experience.

 

Since you just applied to programs, I'm sure you know more about this than I do. I switched fields after undergrad. To the OP, I would say its at least worth discussing research importance with professors in your department though. Getting some experience in the form of research definitely wouldn't hurt.

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Would you also say that a poor grade in abstract algebra is unforgivable for top stat programs or just math? Someone correct me if I'm wrong here but it seems like statistics as a study isn't too related to abstract algebra so I was under the impression that it's just another math class in that regard.

Not sure about this... it probably is still unforgivable for most of the top stats programs (not sure about biostats), but programs ranked below the very top tier might overlook it. I am not really sure about how it looks for stats. However, my impression is that the admissions committees in statistics pay close attention to all the upper division and graduate courses taken in both mathematics and statistics (or if you are coming from another quantitative field, the courses taken in your original field of study). There's probably also a huge difference in perception between a single B- earned in abstract algebra but A/A-'s in all other math classes vs. a C in abstract algebra or a number of B/B-'s earned in proof-heavy classes.

 

 

Hmm this seems very different then my impression on research importance. My undergrad was in math and I was advised to get all the research experience I could. I did research all 4 years of undergrad. Also, all of the students at my school who got into top programs had tons of research experience.

 

Since you just applied to programs, I'm sure you know more about this than I do. I switched fields after undergrad. To the OP, I would say its at least worth discussing research importance with professors in your department though. Getting some experience in the form of research definitely wouldn't hurt.

 

I think REUs may be beneficial for the student in helping them determine if they'd like to do research as a career, but most of the math professors I've talked with (as well as the math professors who chime in on mathoverflow.net and Stack Exchange) have stated that they do not place that much importance on the REU -- or undergraduate research in general (since most of the students are not mathematically mature at that stage in their training)... unless one got a poor or neutral letter of recommendation from the professor they worked with or unless one is a Terence Tao-esque genius who is already producing publishable results as an undergrad, REUs do not make or break an application in most cases for mathematics (not that they hurt). I think doing well on a Putnam exam, taking loads of graduate courses and acing them, and taking a PhD qualifying exam as an undergrad and achieving a high pass are all things that look way better to a math admissions committee than an REU.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Applied Math to Stat

[Stat Assistant Professor]

Perhaps one of the stat professors should chime in about how undergraduate research experience is viewed for statistics/biostatistics applications. However, for mathematics, I am confident in saying that most undergrad research is not viewed as being very mathematically sophisticated (there are of course very rare exceptions), so adcoms do not place as much emphasis on on it as they do on grades, letters of recommendation, and exposure to graduate-level math (or barring that, breadth of serious theoretical math classes taken).