Chances at Top Schools (PhD)

[controlc]

Sorry for yet another thread on this subject, but I am torn between two options after graduation. After graduation, I hope to pursue some sort of graduate studies, but I am not sure whether I want to apply for a Master's in CS, or a PhD in CS. My hesitation for applying to a PhD program comes from the fact that I don't know whether my undergrad credentials are good enough to get me into a top program (top 20). So, I was thinking that in the case that my application is not strong enough, I can apply for a Master's in CS to bolster my credentials.

 

My profile is listed below:

 

Undergrad University: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Year: Rising Senior (Just finished my Junior year)

Majors: B.S. Mathematics and Computer Science (CS is primary)

GPA:

• 3.893 Cumulative
• 3.9+ Computer Science
• 3.8+ Math

Research Experience:

• 3 years of undergrad research total
• 1 year in Enabling Technologies (no publications)
• Almost 2 years in Robotics (1 second-author publication in ICRA, aiming for a first-author publication at ICRA this year)
• 1 year in Artificial Intelligence (1 paper under review)

Industry Experience:

• 1 internship at local firm
• 2 summer internships at SAS Institute 

I have worked/been working with 3 professors, from whom I think I will be able to get good recommendations. I haven't taken the GRE yet, but I am aiming to take it this summer.

 

Also this a bit of a tangent, but what would you rate my chances at Duke PhD? I visited Duke (since I am so close) and feel like I could really fit in there (I'm aware Duke is not a top 10 school).

 

Thanks a lot in advance!

Edited May 8, 2014 by controlc

[D3veate]

I've always assumed that getting into a PhD program is about convincing some professor to work with you on research. GPA and GRE numbers work decently as filters. You can convince a professor that you're capable of quality research because you have already demonstrated a proclivity for doing good research, or because you bring a valuable skill to a research group, or because your professors can vouch that you have what it takes to succeed in academia, or because your enthusiasm and goals indicate that you are a researcher, albeit one who needs training.

The numbers you've posted suggest that you'll get past most of the filters. However, since you've already visited Duke and don't already know that you have a place in a lab, I assume that you didn't have a chance to talk with (and hit it off with) a prospective adviser. Duke might be where you pursue a PhD, but it isn't the only place doing robotics and AI research. It isn't the only place where your fellow graduate students will have the intelligence, skills, and academic curiosity that will enrich your own experience.

Your chances of getting in are either 0 or 1; you'll know after you apply which one it was. A lot of qualified people will apply. The probability of an arbitrary qualified applicant being accepted is Pr(accepted | qualified) = (#accepted) / (#qualified). This of course assumes that Pr(qualified | accepted) = 1. If you apply to a lot of schools with similar admission standards, then we can estimate the probability that you're qualified for those schools... I can't think of any reason why that would be useful. Oh well.

Here's a question: does it matter what your chances are? If you want a PhD, you'll do yourself a disservice if you don't pursue it.

[danieleWrites]

Here's some good news. It was easier to get into Harvard than it was to get a job at one of the two new Walmart stores that opened up in Washington DC.

But here's your answer: no one can answer your question except the admissions committees (adcomms) of the schools you're considering. Sure, maybe one of the PhD students in CS at Duke can toss a number out at you, or work the Lickert scale, or say pretty good or meh. But the odds?

If you want to stack your odds of getting into the right program, look for the right program that has people and facilities doing research into what you're doing. Don't look for the name on the school and try to tweak your application to make you look like you'll fit in with them. It would be kind of like playing up your abilities to develop web apps simply because MIT is all about web apps when you really want to research the semantic web.

You are, in essence, asking the exact wrong question. The question you should be asking is: I'm really into researching A, and University X has Dr. P and Dr. Q who are tops in that field. What are my odds of getting into University X? Should I focus my senior thesis/project on A?

Edited May 9, 2014 by danieleWrites

[cicada2014]

If you get the first author in ICRA and AI, then I am sure you will get in practically everywhere you apply. Actually even if you get one of those published as first author you will be competitive at all schools.

If not, I think you would still have a decent shot at top 5-10 schools

[Icydubloon]

Apply for PhD. You will be admitted to at least one top school, provided you don't mess up your LORs or statement of purpose.

[DeleteMePlease]

Deciding between Ph.D. and Masters should only be about what you want to do.

If your ultimate goal is research, go for a doctorate. If not, or if you're unsure, I'd go for a Masters.

 

Also..your grades look good and UNC is a decent school.

[controlc]

Thanks a lot for the replies everyone! I really appreciate the feedback.

 

I guess you are right, I won't know whether I am getting in or not until I apply in the Fall. I have been doing some further research this summer and I think I can confidently say I want to pursue a PhD. I am well-aware that research has its ups and downs, but the excitement of discovering something new and the resources/time to virtually investigate anything you want to are really appealing.

 

I'll be applying as a PhD to schools this Fall. Are there any last minute advice you would give to a rising senior? I'm hoping to take the GRE very soon, although I hear that it doesn't have much weight relative to the other parts of the application (and that the only section you really need to do really well on is the Quantitative section).