critique my GRE argument essay, plz. thnx :)

[Randa Mahdy]

Prompt:

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

Response:

While this argument seems convincing at first glance, there are critical flaws that raise doubt about the conclusion. The author gives a recommendation based on an unwarranted premise. In addition, the argument does not provide sufficient answers to several questions that shall be posed as follows.

Firstly, the author claims that the population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. What is the statistic on which the author’s claim is bolstered? Who conducted such statistics? Thus, the argument unfairly assumes that the population increase during summer reflects the increase in number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. What is the number of casualties resulting from such accidents, as proven in surveys conducted by an official entity? There is no evidence offered to substantiate the author’s assumption, as the main premise involves a number fallacy which utterly diminishes their recommendation.

Secondly, the author’s unstated assumption involves a causal fallacy, as they assume that mopeds rented by the island’s moped rental companies are the actual cause of accidents. The argument relies upon the assumption that moped rentals cause road accidents but there is no evidence to prove the causality. Too many other factors may affect the reasoning as well. For example, the author should have considered that the population increase during summer, had the previously discussed premise been true, could have caused the accidents, as a result of crowded roads.  Therefore, the question here is what is the evidence that mopeds are the actual cause of accidents and not other factors? As such, what is the proof that the author’s recommendation of decreasing moped rentals would yield the predicted results?

Thirdly, the author claims that the neighboring island Seaville has attained 50% decrease in accidents last year because its town council has enforced similar limits. The author provides no sound evidence or official records that prove the number stated in their argument. Furthermore, what other possible factors that could have caused the decrease in accidents in Seaville? Does the population in Seaville increase during summer, too? Also, is it wise to decrease the number of such popular means of transportation during an apparently touristic season on Balmer Island? What is the evidence that Seaville does not rely on alternative means of transportation, and hence, is able to decrease the number of moped rentals?  Such questions should have been regarded by the author when they give the recommendation, as what is the evidence that the same results would be yielded on Balmer Island? Here, the author falls into a false analogy. Therefore, the quality of the statistical results might be problematic and unreliable; and accordingly, the recommendation might be too.

In conclusion, owing to the above unanswered questions, it is not a viable recommendation to decrease moped rentals on Balmer Island by half during summer. If the author is to provide more sound evidence regarding the increase of population number on Balmer Island during summer, the percent annual reduction in moped accidents achieved last year in Seaville, and the applicability of the limits enforced in Seaville to Balmer, their argument would be more convincing, and their recommendation would be more applicable.