Should I wait to publish before applying?

[Fartre]

I'm a recent Berkeley grad (Integrative Biology, GPA=3.1) with a decent amount of research experience. I'm applying to paleontology programs at U Chicago (Geophysical Sciences), U Michigan Ann Arbor, and a few others, but I don't feel stellar about my chances. I'm also working under a graduate student at Berkeley to describe a few fossil plants (Cretaceous New Mexico), and I should have these descriptions done and published in Spring (after it matters to grad admissions). Should I hold off on applying for grad schools this round? I've already started the application process, but I could just as easily stop and wait for another year while I gain more tangible research benefits.

[eeee1923]

If the year off would help you become a stronger researcher (and thus applicant) - then I say go for it. 

[Fartre]

I'm sure I would be a stronger researcher incrementally, but I think I'd be ready either way. I'm already taking one gap year to do this plant fossil research - I guess what I'm wondering is, could having a publication ready by the application time make or break an application? I'm feeling like I'll be on the edge for Chicago - my geology training is super minimal and my GPA is lower than what Chicago typically admits.

[eeee1923]

I would guess that it depends on the quality of the publication. You don't necessarily have to have the publication to be admitted but if your stats are that on the fence it may help. If you are able to get strong LoRs at this point and write a strong SoP - you may already have what it takes to get in right now. But this is all speculation and you won't know if you don't try. The most you can do is finish applying this year and see where the chips land. If you end up getting into Chicago, then the publication in the spring will just be an added bonus that would go on your CV and potentially help you get fellowships later on. 

[magnetite]

When will you actually submit the paper to a journal? I'm applying this round as well and I have a paper in the works as well. It won't be submitted before I finish the applications. My advisor has told me to send an updated CV to the grad programs once I submit the paper. I'm not sure the usual process for this, or if at that point graduate programs would even care. I suppose I could mention this in my statements of purpose, or research history sections, but I haven't done so yet for the two I'm completely finished with.

[GeoDUDE!]

I think this is faulty logic: money and time no object.... it does not make sense to wait until next cycle. The worst case senario is that you get completely rejected, you retool with your publications, and reapply next year.  Why miss out on opportunities? If the people you want to work with have funding now, they will get a student, and there may not be an open spot next year. 

Don't apply to places you don't want to go to, because if your argument is you would get into a better graduate school... applications don't work like that. The biggest hurdle for student acceptance is funding. If they have funding, you should apply now.