Analytical Writing

[TheStudyBunny]

Please evaluate my response to the following GRE prep question. I have been procrastinating on studying GRE for a while. I've only decided to start today. Be as harsh as you want. I like honest remarks and critiques. 

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The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of Brindleburg to the city council.

"Two years ago, the town of Seaside Vista opened a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. Since then, the Seaside Vista Tourism Board has reported a 20% increase in visitors. In addition, local banks reported a steep rise in the number of new business loan applications they received this year. The amount of tax money collected by Seaside Vista has also increased, allowing the town to announce plans to improve Seaside Vista's roads and bridges. We recommend building a similar golf course and resort hotel in Brindleburg. We predict that this project will generate additional tax revenue that the city can use to fund much-needed public improvements."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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The recommendation would be rejected because the argument is not sound. Correlation does not imply causation. The author is making the assumption that the sudden boost in tourism in Seaside Vista is due to a new golf course and resort hotel. There was no attempt to look at other plausible causes for the sudden increase in visitors. Perhaps, apart from the new golf course and resort hotel, Seaside Vista Tourism Board may have implemented new advertising methods or improved on other facilities such as public restrooms or public beaches.

Similarly, an increase in business loan applications does not necessarily apply to businesses that can contribute to the economy of Seaside Vista. These people could be venturing into businesses elsewhere, for instance, a neighbouring town. Hence, this will not be contributing to the tourism or tax increment in Seaside Vista. Apart from that, the increase in business loan could also indicate the economy in this town may have recently improved due to factors that are not directly linked to tourism. An example would be a sudden decrease in petroleum prices. This can have a strong effect on the market, ultimately leading to more people investing in businesses of any sort and therefore results in an overall increase in the tax collected.

The author does not make a clear comparison as to how the increment in tourism leads to generating a higher tax revenue. It cannot be assumed that an increment in tourism leads to more tax money being collected especially if the bulk of taxes is coming from another source such as the pharmaceutical industry. Additionally, it also cannot be assumed that new businesses in Seaside Vista directly contributes tourism like restaurants or shopping malls. Entreprenaurs in this town could be investing in universities or hospitals which may increase the tax collected and may even result in increased educational or health tourism. However, in such cases, a golf course and resort may not be deemed necessary to attract visitors. 

As per the reasons stated above, I predict the project will not be successful because not enough research is done on the subject matter. The author should firstly eliminate all other contributing factors that may result in higher tax revenue before arguing that there is a correlation between the points presented in the above premises. A strong suggestion for solving the problem would be to conduct surveys and do market research before arriving at a conclusion.

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by lynnie