Top PhD Choice and Current MA Program - Advantage?

[TastyHiHatWork]

Like many, I am still waiting for decisions to start coming in (January 15 deadlines). While I would obviously be happy to attend any of the schools to which I applied, my top choice is the school at which I am finishing my MA in American history.  

I am wondering if anyone who knows more about what goes into admissions decisions than I do could give some basis for gauging how much of a factor that might play in my acceptance.  I do hope this is an appropriate question.

I have a 4.0 in the program, okay GREs, pretty solid relationships with most of the professors I've had (including the PhD director, who encouraged me to continue onto the PhD when I wasn't sure), LoRs from PhD director and my potential advisor, and a teaching assistantship.  Getting a TA for an MA student in our department is exceedingly rare, but a PhD student got outside funding, and all others had funding of some sort.  The department chair got my name from "asking some faculty members."

While I am sure that I'm coming across as rather obtuse, we all know there's no such thing as a safety school, and there are some factors working against me. Primarily, my biggest worry is that they are only accepting 4 funded students this season (out of, I've heard from a current PhD student, 60 applicants. But I don't know if that's the total number or a cut).  The other thing is that I don't think I know anyone else on the adcomm (again, I haven't asked directly; I prefer to "hear things") besides the PhD director, and she doesn't have a vote.  I.e, I don't know how much weight my relationships might carry.

Again, any analysis of the situation would be appreciated, even if it's just to say "Don't count on it" or "Go do your reading instead of hanging out here" because I think both are equally true; I'm just reaching critical mass about all this, and I've likely got a couple weeks to wait.

Thanks, folks, and good luck!