Yet another profile evaluation - Statistics PhD (Thank you so much!)

[Radon-Nikodym]

Hey guys,

I will be applying to PhD programs in Statistics this fall, and being as neurotic as I am, I just wanted to put my profile here for you all to comment on my chances.

Undergrad Institution: UChicago (reasonably known for its grade deflation, hopefully?)

Major: Mathematics, Statistics

Cumulative GPA: Between 3.6 and 3.7, probably higher than my major GPAs, unfortunately

Type of Student: Domestic male

Math Courses:
Undergraduate: Honors Calculus (3 quarters, A, A-, B+), Analysis in Rⁿ (3 quarters, B+, A-, B+), Basic Algebra (2 quarters, this is what UChicago calls its abstract algebra sequence, A-, B+), Abstract Linear Algebra (A), Basic Complex Variables (B), Point Set Topology (A-), Basic Theory of ODEs (B+), Markov Chains, Martingales, and Brownian Motion (A-)
Graduate: Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus (B+), Computability and Complexity Theory (A-)

Statistics Courses:
Undergraduate: Statistical Theory and Methods (2 quarters, A-, B+), Pattern Recognition (B+), Intro to Mathematical Probability (A), Applied Regression Analysis (A-), Time Dependent Data (B), Multiple Testing, Modern Inference, and Replicability (A-), Optimization (A-)
Graduate: Measure-Theoretic Probability (A-)

GRE: Q 170, V 164, W 5.0

GRE Mathematics Subject Test: From April, 760 (73rd percentile - I was told by my departmental adviser that this score is rather low. Retook it this September, but man, that was a hard test, so I'm not expecting much)

Research Experience: Not a terribly lot, I did the Math REU at my school over the summer and I've worked as a research assistant at the Booth School of Business (doing data analysis, one paper submitted to a low impact factor journal in econometrics, really hoping that it gets accepted). I was also an intern at a relatively well-known data analytics company, but I don't think this counts as research experience. However, I am much more interested in theory than application, and I think it's harder to do research in statistical/probability theory as an undergraduate.

Awards: Nothing out of the ordinary, Dean's List, etc.

Recommendations: 2 from professors who taught my courses in math & stats (one is rather well-known, the other is a junior faculty member), 1 from supervisor for my RA position

Programs I'm Interested In:
I'd really like to be accepted to a top 20 Statistics Department (the higher-ranked, the better) although I don't know how likely that would be with my frequent Bs in my math and statistics courses. I would prefer a program that would let me focus on theory rather than application. Schools in particular are:
UChicago (I don't know how likely it is that my own department will accept me, but I really like its emphasis on theory)
Stanford
Berkeley
Washington
Harvard
Carnegie Mellon
Duke
UPenn
Wisconsin
Columbia
Yale
UCLA
I might also apply to some math departments that have faculty working in probability theory and theoretical statistics

Would anyone like to speculate on my odds of being accepted to one of these programs? Is my Math GRE score not competitive enough for the top programs? Will UChicago's reputation for grade deflation hopefully make up for some of my lower grades? Thank you!

Edited September 25, 2017 by Radon–Nikodym

[abstract_art]

Chicago definitely has a reputation for grade deflation/ the math major is notoriously tough so I wouldn't worry too much about your grades (you can't change them at this point anyway). Your GRE should be competitive for top programs since you're a domestic student (the only place that requires it is Stanford, and their average is 75% and that includes internationals who are held to a higher standard), your departmental advisor probably is talking about applying to math programs or they're out of touch with current statistics phd admissions. There were at least three Chicago undergrads accepted to the stats program this last year so it seems they're ok with accepting undergrads/ that shouldn't hurt you there.

Overall I'd say apply to the schools on your list and also throw in some of the bigger state schools in the top 20, you'll definitely get in somewhere.

[Radon-Nikodym]

@marmle Thank you! Are you sure Stanford's average Math GRE score is 75th percentile? On their FAQ page, it says "Average Math Subject GRE score (percentile) of admitted applicants: (PhD only) 82%," but this could be old data. Have you heard otherwise? I feel like the Math GRE could be more important to me since I'm primarily interested in Probability Theory, which is usually seen as more of a math-y subject (as opposed to more applied or methodological areas of research in Statistics)

Congrats for being accepted to UChicago's Stat program btw! I must admit that I'm a little jealous. 

Edited September 27, 2017 by Radon-Nikodym

[abstract_art]

@Radon-Nikodym No you're right, I didn't remember correctly! And you might be right that the Math GRE could be more important for you since you're interested in probability theory, but I also think that coming from Chicago and doing pretty well in the math classes there already shows you're capable. My guess is that your score is good enough that it won't make or break your chances at any top schools considering it's in line with the rest of your app. See this post from cyberwulf https://forum.thegradcafe.com/topic/89814-2017-applicant-profiles-and-admission-results-for-statisticsbiostatistics/?tab=comments#comment-1058493642

 

[Radon-Nikodym]

I just received my GRE Math Subject test score, and I can't believe that I got a 900 (95th percentile)! I'm in shock right now... I never expected to have scored that high with all the guesses I made during the test... Does this substantially change my chances of being accepted into Statistics programs?

[Radon-Nikodym]

Wow, this score came completely from out of left field, and now I'm re-evaluating my applications... I originally was planning to apply to mostly stat programs, since I didn't feel competitive for math programs with my lower grades (I've been told that math PhD programs are absurdly competitive), but now I feel like I might have a fighting chance. Would my new subject test score make me competitive for even the top math programs?

Edited October 13, 2017 by Radon-Nikodym

[kevinn1209]

As a fellow applicant this year who has similar stats to yourself (except I come from a much worse school), I think you definitely have a good shot at pretty much any top stats program with that subject score (I did much worse and am retaking in 2 weeks; can't say I'm not jealous haha since this test is kind of stressing me out), given the rest of your profile.

For math, I think you would have a good shot at schools in the top 10-20 range and, most likely, some schools would admit you purely based on the score. For top 5 math schools, I still think it would be tough to get in even with a 900. Virtually every domestic male student I've seen accepted to a top 5 program in math had a 3.9+ gpa/90%+ gre's AND multiple REU's/published papers or something else spectacular like top putnam performance or a directed reading with someone super famous. I've heard rumors that having anything less than an A- on a core course (e.g. analysis, algebra, topology) will kill your application. Of course, I'm sure there are exceptions.

Also, take note that many schools, like Stanford and Berkeley (the former being arguably one of the best places to study probability through a pure math phd), only allow applications to one phd program. So, for a lot of the top schools, you'll have to pick one and you will probably have a better chance with the stats dept just because pure math phd programs are so damn competitive nowadays.

[abstract_art]

I would post on http://www.mathematicsgre.com/ since the people who post there are more in tune with math programs. But also like Kevin said some schools only allow one app, and Stanford/Berkeley/other top 10 math programs are going to be much more of a crapshoot than their stats programs, so be wise about how you spread your apps!

[Radon-Nikodym]

Thank you guys for all of your help! I'm finally starting all my applications, and I decided to update my list with several math programs and remove a few stat programs (due to my unexpected subject test score... Hopefully a 900 will make me competitive for the top 10 statistics programs and I'll need less "safety" options). Does this list look reasonable given my profile? Are there any programs that I'm missing or that aren't a great fit for me? Right now, my list has 14 schools, but I'm trying to cut it down to 12 if possible. 

Statistics Programs:
UChicago 
Stanford
Berkeley
Harvard
Washington
Carnegie Mellon
UPenn
UNC 

Mathematics Programs: (all of these programs have faculty working in probability theory)
UCLA
Michigan
Columbia
NYU 
Yale
Cornell